not-just-india-trump-has-ditched-whole-world-of-allies

The US President Donald Trump has shocked and surprised everyone across the globe. Starting from the US’ immediate and trusted neighbour Canada to European Union, Israel and Ukraine. India that way was not a formal strategic partner. Even this phase of Trump diplomacy is not going to be permanent. As in everything else, Trump will be fickle in diplomacy as well. 

It is absolutely illogical to blame the government of India and suggest that it has failed to handle Trump. An unpredictable leader like Trump is practically impossible to be handled and dealt with. His priorities change from time to time. So do his preferences. At the same time it will be a grossly misplaced conclusion to assume that the US under Trump’s second term will get closer to Pakistan than India or the two countries will be treated at a par. Trump’s statements on the ceasefire should not be taken to be the policy statement of his administration towards India. 

By announcing tariffs on every country across the globe, Trump is trying to project himself as the saviour and a messiah of the United States. However, he has been carefully weaving his “personal business interests” with that of the “national interest”. This is not getting lost on anyone. Trump does have a tendency of striking favourable deals for his business handled by his children. He remains a businessman at the core, even after becoming the President of the United States a second time. And he tries to dangle the “trade carrot” in front of every warring country whether Russia, Ukraine, India or Pakistan. 

His two sons and son-in-law have swept the cash rich Middle East with highly favourable business deals that will yield billions in profits. Israel can wait, but the Trump family’s business cannot.

 

Also read: An unpredictable Trump puts at stake Indo-US relations

A quick recap here about Trump’s previous presidency as how he traded off the “murder” of Jamal Khashoggi, a US national of Saudi descent inside the Saudi consulate in Turkey in 2018. Khashoggi was a diehard critic of the Saudi’s ruling family. When he went inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul to get some documents verified for his marriage, he just vanished away. He was allegedly killed by the Saudi agents inside the consulate premises. The murder, one of the most brutal, was allegedly ordered by the Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS). 

Trump initially promised severe retaliation for the killing of one of the US citizens. Then came a trade off. Like now, Trump in his previous term was also crying hoarse against the US spending too much for stability and welfare in other countries. A part of Syria had been liberated from the Islamic State that time. Trump wanted his allies to support in rebuilding that part of the country (Syria). Saudi Arabia was not interested initially.

After the Khashoggi murder took place and the finger of suspicion was pointed directly at the crown prince MBS, the Saudis instantly agreed to make a $100 million contribution towards the US for stabilising the ISIS liberated areas. Trump instantly changed the tune. From blaming the Saudis for the killing of the US citizen, who was a regular contributor to The Washington Post newspaper, he (Trump) instantly attributed the killing to some “rogue killers”. MBS got a clean chit by paying $100 million to the Trump-led US administration. 
Fast forward now. Trump has accepted a $400 million luxury jet from Qatar’s ruling family. The customised Boeing 747 is described as the “Flying Palace”. Trump is understood to use this gift as the Air Force One, used by the Presidents of the US. Once he demits his office, he has announced, the plane will be transferred to the Trump Foundation for his personal use.

Pam Bondi, who has been appointed Attorney General by Trump, and who has been arguing that the “gift” is legal, was quite interestingly, an official lobbyist for Qatar between 2019 and 2020 during the time of first Trump presidency. 

Qatar is one of the main financiers of the militant group Hamas. The Hamas headquarter was in Doha till the recent past. Qatar is estimated to have donated over $1.8 billion to Hamas in the last few years. Hamas is the same militant organisation, which launched a brutal attack on Israel killing hundreds of innocent people and taking so many as hostages, including some Americans also. Imagine Trump accepting a gift from the country that has been not only a friend but also the main financier of the militant group that attacked the US ally, Israel in which several Americans were also killed. 

Not just that, Trump did not have any compunctions in meeting the new Syrian president, Ahamd al-Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda member, who fought against the US troops in Iraq. He was also jailed in the infamous Abu Ghraib prison. 

Coming to the Trump trumpeted “ceasefire”, between India and Pakistan, reportedly also has a “business interest”. On April 26, four days after the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan Crypto Council signed a business agreement with World Liberty Financial (WLF), a US based crypto company with the Trump family having 60 per cent stakes in it. 

Pakistan’s leading newspaper Dawn reported that the US delegation that had come to sign the agreement was personally received by Pakistan army chief General, now Field Marshal, Asim Munir. He was reportedly present when the agreement was signed. That was quite unusual for the army chief to be present at a business meeting. 

It will not be easy for any government anywhere in the world to deal with someone whose policy is driven and guided more by trade than strategic interests and that too with a lot of personal interests also involved. If Trump can strike a deal with Qatar despite its open support to Hamas and ditch an ally like Israel, if he can shake hands with a former Al Qaeda leader who killed US troops, he can go to any extent. As of now, for Trump, it is trade that matters more than any allies, no matter how old and how reliable they have been. 

How much does it matter to India? Not really much. Because, India never grew much dependent on the US in any manner. Yes, the two countries have come a lot closer over the years, but still not as close as India and Russia. The US establishment wanted to work with India to counter China. But with a President like Trump, who can trade off anything for trade, India will do well to rethink and redo everything, without getting much dependent on the US.