punjab-cannot-afford-radicals-replacing-moderates

The alternative to moderate politics is radicals. Not just in Punjab, even in Jammu and Kashmir, radicals and extremists have flourished at the cost of moderates only. Whenever moderates have grown weak, the radicals have filled up the space. In Jammu and Kashmir during the parliament elections, radical leader Engineer Rashid defeated Omar Abdullah, who at that time was a former Chief Minister, from Baramulla parliamentary constituency, while in jail. Omar is now the Chief Minister after his party National Conference won the September 2024 assembly elections.

 

In a mirror-like similarity, radical Sikh preacher/leader Amritpal Singh was also in jail and won from Khadoor Sahib parliamentary constituency in the 2024 General Elections. Both Rashid and Singh are still in jail. Rasheed had been released on bail for the assembly elections, which were held in September 2024 in Jammu and Kashmir. His party lost badly and could only win one seat, despite having taken the lead in 16 of the 18 assembly segments falling in the Baramulla parliamentary constituency, just about six months ago. In the assembly elections, his party could retain only one of the 16 segments he had led from. 

 

In Punjab, Tarn Taran assembly segment is scheduled to go for a by-election on November 11. It was necessitated by the death of sitting ruling Aam Aadmi Party MLA Dr Kashmir Singh Sohal.

 

Since 2022, assembly elections have significantly changed in Punjab, which was reflected in the parliamentary election results. While the AAP fared quite badly, losing 10 of the 13 parliamentary constituencies, it led from 33 assembly segments only, despite having won 92 seats in 2022.

The significant takeaway from the 2024 General Elections was the victory of two radical candidates from two parliamentary constituencies of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot. Both won with a significant margin.

 

While Amritpal won from Khadoor Sahib, Sarabjit Singh won from Faridkot. Sarabjit is the son of Beant Singh, one of the bodyguards and assassins of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. While Amritpal has been preaching radical and extremist politics, which has landed him in jail before getting elected to the parliament, Sarabjit has tried to maintain a distance from radicalism and extremism personally. However, his victory from Faridkot is attributed to the shift of the moderate voters from the traditional moderate political party Shiromani Akali Dal towards the radical ideology. Sarabjeet won only because he was the son of Ms Gandhi’s assassin.

 

Tarn Taran assembly segment falls in district Tarn Taran, which falls in the restive region of Majha in Punjab bordering Pakistan. This is known to be a radical and panthic belt. The area was the worst hit during the Punjab militancy.

 

After the return of peace and normalcy, Tarn Taran assembly segment was won by the moderate Shiromani Akali Dal-Badal and Congress, off and on. Despite being a predominantly panthic constituency, with more than 90 per cent Sikh voters, Tarn Taran in 2017 elected a Hindu candidate from the Congress, Dr Dharamvir Agnihotri who trounced quite a few Sikh candidates. Dr Agnihotri was quite popular in the area and was known for serving people during the dark days of militancy. Despite being a panthic belt, people voted for him irrespective of the religion he belonged to.

 

It is mostly the same people from the assembly segment who in the 2024 parliamentary elections voted for the radical preacher Amritpal in the parliamentary elections. Radical political thinking and religious affiliations are two different things in Punjab. Dr Agnihotri passed away a few years back. Had he been alive, he would have been a formidable candidate this time also, despite the panthic surge in the area.

 

Amritpal’s associates, including his father Tarsem Singh have formed a separate political party, Shiromani Akali Dal-Waris Punjab De. The party has fielded Mandeep Singh for the by-election from here. Mandeep is the brother of Sandeep Singh, who is in jail facing trial for the murder of Shiv Sena leader Sudhir Suri in Amritsar. Sandeep was recently accused of having attacked a convicted cop, who later died, in Patiala jail.

 

The result of the Tarn Taran by-election will be inconsequential in context of the overall electoral mathematics in the state. The ruling AAP already has about three-fourth majority in the Punjab Legislative Assembly. Win or loss will not make any difference.

 

But the result will be important on two counts. One, no ruling party likes to lose a by-election and that too when the general assembly elections are just a year away. More than that, the Tarn Taran electoral result will be reflective of the influence of the radical politics in the area, which has a potential to spread to other regions also.

 

The choice of Mandeep Singh, the candidate by Amritpal’s party is also significant. He does not have any political background. For that matter, even Amritpal did not have any, except that he preached radicalism for a while before the elections that landed him in jail. He had become quite popular among a section of youth, thanks to social media.

 

Mandeep Singh’s only qualification is that he is the brother of a murder accused, Sandeep Singh. In this case the victim was an extremist Hindu leader Sudhir Suri, who would often issue provocative and sectarian statements. Sandeep is also accused of killing a jailed cop, who was convicted and sentenced to life-term in a case of fake encounter during militancy in Punjab.

 

The mainstream political parties in Punjab, including the ruling AAP, the opposition Congress, the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal are genuinely feeling concerned about the radical drift the politics is seeing in that particular area, which is quite close to the border.

 

In the 2022 assembly elections, the AAP had successfully and impressively managed to check any possible drift towards radicalism by providing a third alternative to the people from the Akali-Congress cycle. Will the AAP be able to repeat the 2022 feat, in terms of arresting the drift and checking the radical shift, remains to be seen. In a multi-cornered contest that Tarn Taran is going to witness, it is quite difficult to make any guesses.