Seven states are going to polls next year. The Congress has direct stakes in six of these. Punjab is one of the important states where the party smells the chance of returning to power. In fact, the ongoing leadership tussle within the party is primarily because the leaders are optimistic and have hence started eyeing the chief minister’s post. But it is easier said than done.
Thanks to the controversy over “Satluj” movie that pushed the Congress factional feud to background, otherwise the party was badly losing on optics and an impression was gaining ground that it is a house divided against itself.
Rebels were waiting for Rahul Gandhi to return from his foreign sojourn. The rebel leaders are hoping against hope that he would listen to their demand to replace incumbent president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring. While earlier the rebels sought his replacement with Charanjit Singh Channi and also wanted him to be projected as the chief ministerial face, they have now been saying that their only demand is his (Warring’s) removal, no matter who replaces him.
The dilemma that the party high command is faced with is whether it should succumb to the pressure of the rebels in Punjab. If it doesn’t, it fears that those opposed to Warring may not cooperate with him and this may damage Congress chances in the state. If the party agrees to the rebels’ demand, it may open other fronts in other states.
Undoubtedly, a majority of party leaders are seeking Warring’s removal in Punjab. At the same time, he has his supporters also. Important factor that goes in his favour is his overall performance. Besides, with just six more months left for the elections, it will highly be inadvisable to replace him at this stage.
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That is not the only problem for the high command. Allowing the rebels to have their way will definitely weaken the authority of the party high command. It all depends on Rahul Gandhi whether he succumbs to the rebels’ pressure or sticks to the original decision that the PCC president will not be changed. His problems will not end with Punjab. If he replaces Warring at this stage, his problems will start from here and may extend to other states as well.
Elections for seven state assemblies are scheduled for 2027. These are all important states and except for UP, the Congress is the direct stakeholder. Besides Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat are scheduled to go for elections next year. The Congress is the principal opposition party in six of these states where it can return to power.
The year 2027 is going to set the tone for the General Elections slated to be held in 2029. If the Congress manages to do well in at least three or four states, it will naturally boost the morale of its ranks and cadres. While in Himachal Pradesh it already has the government, it has good chances in Punjab, Manipur and Goa, and is in a good fighting position in Gujarat also, where it has been strengthening the party at the grassroots level. Gujarat and Himachal are scheduled to go for elections in the later half of 2027.
Punjab is going to be the real test for the Congress at the national level depending on how it handles the organisational issues. If the high command succumbs to pressure from the rebels, there will be no end to it in other states as well. If anything is holding the Congress together, for that matter any other party, it is the unquestionable authority of the leadership. In Punjab the party faces a challenge to that authority, which it is rightly resisting.
Moreover, the challenge has come from someone like Charanjit Singh Channi, whom the party picked out from nowhere and appointed chief minister in 2022. Not only did the party lose badly, Channi lost two assembly segments he contested from.
Another important factor weighing heavily against Channi is the seizure of huge cash to the tune of about Rs 8 crore from the residence of his nephew by the Enforcement Directorate just ahead of the 2022 assembly elections. That is understood to be the main reason for the party high command not nominating him as the PCC president in the recent reshuffle. He was instead named chairman of the campaign committee.
With Rahul’s return, the scene has shifted to Delhi. This is time for Rahul to assert his authority and take a decision that goes in favour of the party and does not undermine his own authority either. He has to take an overall view across all states and must not allow to set a wrong precedent from Punjab, which may have long-term consequences for the party.
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