That US President Donald Trump is clearly confused about his endgame in Iran is now an established fact beyond any doubt. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not have even in the wildest imaginations thought that the “war on Iran” will last that long and will cost that much. Iran is giving them a run for their money. More the US President threatens Iran about bombing it to “stone age”, the more his frustration gets revealed.
The US and the world are set for a long haul in the Iran-US war. The Iranian leadership, whatever is left of it, appears to be more clear, more convinced and more resolute than President Trump on how to go about the war and till when. When Iran says that the US and Israel started the war and only Iran will end it, it says that for a reason and definitely from a point of courage and strength. Iran, despite its massive losses, both in terms of men and material, including its senior leadership, has proved that the country cannot be cowed down, no matter who its enemy is.
It is obvious and understandable that it would not have been possible for Iran to sustain and survive the war that long on its own. Iran has two mighty and powerful countries Russia and China backing it. The two countries are providing all possible support to Iran. From diplomatic to economic to military and intelligence aid, Iran is getting everything. That explains Iran’s precision strikes in the Middle East including UAE, Kuwait and Israel. Besides, it has breached the US air dominance by downing its super jet fighters. The US may have managed to rescue its personnel from Iranian soil, but that has come at a heavy cost.
The downing of two fighter jets should serve enough lessons for the US military establishment, if it is unanimous about the Iran operations, as how difficult it will be for the country to get out of the war.
When taking out one crew personnel required so much effort and resources, how difficult it would be to deal with such situations if and when the US decides to put its boots on the Iranian soil, can be anybody’s guess. Talking tough is one thing, acting tough is very different. And acting tough is not as easy as it sounds.
While the ground invasion on Iran will obviously be the last resort for the US, which at this stage seems highly unlikely, if it happens, it will be the best thing for China and Russia. The best thing they would like to happen is to get the US entangled in direct war with Iran; the same way the US and the European countries have entangled Russia in Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine war did not cost anything to the rest of the world, but the Iran-US war is proving quite costly for the whole world, including the US, which has not escaped the rise in energy prices.
There have been strong differences within the US establishment about the war on Iran. The US President is believed to have been dragged into the war by Israel and his own Defence Secretary, also called ‘Secretary of War’, Pete Hegseth. Trump said publicly that Hegseth was keener about the war with Iran, which was interpreted as his way of putting the blame on Hegseth.
Also read: After stirring the hornet’s nest, Trump hints at leaving Iran
Trump’s deputy, Vice President JD Vance’s reservations about the Iran war are quite well known, which Trump calls “philosophical differences”. Vance, like Trump’s own earlier stand, is against American military intervention in foreign lands. Vance, however, is understood to have come around and is now supporting the war against Iran.
Recently, on April 2, Hegseth sacked US chief of army staff General Randy George along with two other senior officers, Gen David M Hodne and Maj Gen William Green Jr. The reasons are not very difficult to decode, which are obviously linked with the ongoing Iran war. Hegseth, a former US Army Major, had earlier removed joint chiefs chairman Gen Charles Brown. However, he was removed last year, much before the Iran war.
The downing of two US high tech fighter jets should come as a warning signal to the US, if it has not already been, that the Iran expedition runs the risk of running into and ending up as a misadventure. The US was lucky to rescue one of its crew who was trapped inside Iranian territory. Imagine, if he were caught alive by Iran, it would have turned tables against Trump, as Iran would have leveraged his arrest. May be this will serve as a note of timely caution for Trump that greater involvement in Iran will mean greater risks like that, which he can ill afford when the midterms are due only six months from now.
May be Trump will seek an exit from the war, at the earliest to avoid such situations in future as their probability increases with every passing day and increased involvement. But it will depend as much on Iran, China and Russia together. They have managed to trap Trump into a conflict, which is costing him dear. Obviously, they would like to drag it as far as they can and keep on bleeding the US economically, which has already spent several billion dollars on this war and will need to spend many more billions without any apparent convincing purpose.
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