Saudi Arabia and Pakistan's new defence pact alters the regional security calculus and affects India's role as a strategic player in South Asia. With global geopolitics changing – America's declining role in Gulf security, and an island-hopping region from one side to the other of South Asia – India needs to rethink its national security and regional stability approach.
The September 17 Strategic Mutual Defence Pact, signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, reads: "An attack upon one is an attack upon both. We are determined and committed to deterrence together, and our defensive commitments have been enhanced."
This marks the official transformation of a long-standing military relationship between the two Muslim countries into a deepening strategic partnership in an uncertain regional environment throughout South Asia and the Middle East.
The timing of this pact is significant. There has been more regional animosity than usual—especially after Israel bombed Hamas leaders in Qatar. That laid bare concerns about America as a security guarantor in the Gulf. What the move by Saudi Arabia suggests is a shift away from a security architecture whose fulcrum was based on the United States to alliances it can rely upon closer to home.
Also read: Pak-Saudi defence pact: Should India be worried?
Entranced as it is with Saudi Arabia, India's traditional concerns about Pakistan are now becoming more complex. Primary amongst these is Pakistan's nuclear capability and its connection to Saudi Arabia because of increasing militarisation. The Indian establishment now has to reckon with more powerful Pakistani armed forces with potential funding coming from the robustness of Saudi Arabia's buoyant economy.
India has tried to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia as a key supplier of oil and investor, whilst also enhancing its military ties with Israel. The deal will only embroil India in the tension between its warming relations with Saudi Arabia and a hostile Pakistan, which now relies on security commitments from Riyadh. The prospect of Saudi Arabia providing diplomatic backing for Pakistan poses a well-founded threat to India's regional credibility in the Gulf and West Asia.
The significance of this alliance transcends bilateral linkages into far broader regional and global strategic considerations, especially at a time when American involvement is waning and power politics is witnessing changes. Confronting an even less steadfast partner than in the past, New Delhi has conceded to a situation where it must ensure this new balance of power favours its national interests and regional security.
The South Asian strategic scenario is one of the most complex and unstable on Earth. This has continued through classic geopolitical confrontations and generated new types of unconventional challenges. Traditional security threats, such as the India-Pakistan rivalry and its cross-border dimensions, would be very familiar to Washington in disputes like May 2025's missile versus drone incident during Operation Sindoor.
Conventional conflict is being increasingly challenged by non-traditional threats such as climate change, food and water security, income inequality, and terrorism. Cyber security is certainly an area upon which regional stability relies. There are also problems that stem from cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and nuclear command and control systems that could cause inadvertent escalation.
In addition, conditions such as extremist insurgencies, political turmoil, and exploitable systems of governance continue to threaten stability in this region. However, these multilateral issues don't generally result in joint solutions, because distrust and divergent political aims have conspired to prevent regional cooperation.
Also read: Pak-Saudi defence deal springs out of US unreliability
A Saudi-Pakistani nexus introduces an additional dimension in the calculus for stabilising the area and throws a spanner in the works of efforts toward regional stability, stoking wider animosity. This also rebalances and reshapes the strategic map of three intersecting regions—South Asia, the Middle East, and the Gulf. This deal cements a trend that shapes domestic and foreign policy, often including themes against neighbours.
This also sends a message to other players in this regional space—Iran, Israel, and the US—that Saudi Arabia is restructuring its military partnerships amid the reality of deepened instability and conflict globally. Furthermore, in its own indirect way, the alliance could act as a brake on Chinese regional ambitions, since China is closely affiliated with both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The deal could further enhance China's strategic position and undermine US leverage over India, thus rendering India's security environment more complicated.
The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact is a game-changer that brings the Gulf power into formal military solidarity with Pakistan. For India, it means that Pakistan's strategic deterrence now has a supporter in one of the most influential players in the Middle East. India's stance has been measured up to now, but given its impact on national security, regional stability, and global equilibrium, it must step up with careful analysis. This serves to emphasise the urgent requirements for a cohesive and comprehensive approach by India towards strategic partnerships and defence preparedness in line with its national interests in the contemporary multipolar world order.
Follow us
