The Aam Aadmi Party government in Punjab has probably seen maximum by-elections in its term. So far, six assembly and two parliamentary by-elections have been held in Punjab since March 2022 when the AAP took over. The seventh assembly by-election is scheduled to be held for the Tarn Taran assembly segment on November 11. It was necessitated by the death of the sitting AAP legislator Kashmir Singh Sohal.
Another by-election for Khadoor Sahib Assembly segment is in the waiting as the sitting AAP MLA Manjinder Singh Lalpura was convicted in a case of molestation and sentenced to four years of imprisonment. Once held, it will be the 10th by-election during the AAP’s four-year term so far. This may be a record of sorts.
The Tarn Taran by-election will not make any difference to the survival of the AAP government, which is already enjoying a brute majority, with 93 legislators in a house of 117. However, no ruling party likes to lose a by-election and that too just about a year before the main elections, which are scheduled for early 2027.
Tarn Taran assembly segment is a thoroughly ‘panthic’ constituency with an overwhelming Sikh population. However, religion, till the recent past, did not play a dominant role when it came to choice of candidates. The constituency elected Dr Dharamvir Agnihotri, a Hindu in 2017, who defeated many Sikh candidates in this Sikh dominated panthic constituency. In 2022, the AAP candidate Kashmir Singh Sohal won with an impressive margin.
In the 2024 General Elections, the area took a radical turn electing the radical Sikh preacher Amritpal to the parliament from the Khadoor Sahib parliamentary constituency, under which Tarn Taran falls, by a margin of about two lakh votes. Amritpal had contested as an independent candidate.
From the Tarn Taran assembly segment he got 44703 votes, while the Congress candidate got 20,193 and the AAP candidate got 18,298 votes. The Akali candidate had polled 10,896 votes from here in the 2024 General Elections.
While Amritpal is in Dibrugarh jail, his father Tarsem Singh has formed a political party Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De). The party has fielded Mandeep Singh for the Tarn Taran by-election. Mandeep is the brother of Sandeep Singh, who is also in jail for the murder of Shiv Sena leader Sudhir Suri. Sandeep was also accused of attacking a convicted police officer inside the jail, who later succumbed to his injuries.
The mainstream political parties including the ruling AAP, the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal have been cautioning people against voting for Amritpal’s candidate. The breakaway Akali Dal, headed by Giani Harpreet Singh, however, has announced its support for Mandeep.
Although the ruling AAP appears to be having an edge right now, there seems to be a subtle undercurrent in favour of Mandeep, whose only qualification is that he happens to be the brother of Sandeep, who has killed a Shiv Sena leader.
That is why all eyes are on the Tarn Taran by-election as to which way the constituency will go this time. There are already apprehensions about the rise of radical elements in Punjab, particularly after the 2024 General Elections, when they won two parliamentary constituencies of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot. The Tarn Taran assembly by-election, irrespective of the final result, will determine the trend among the ‘panthic’ voters ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.
This may be reflective of the disillusionment and alienation among the people with the traditional political parties. In 2022, people rejected both the Congress as well as the Shiromani Akali Dal, which had been traditionally ruling the state. They also rejected the radical elements like Simranjit Singh Mann that time. But the frustration appears to be continuing even after the election of the AAP with which people had laid great expectations.
A victory, in all likelihood, appears to be difficult for the Amritpal’s candidate as the ruling party is taking this election quite seriously like all other previous by-elections and also because this is being held when the government is in its last lap. Even if Amritpal’s candidate gets substantial votes, that should be a cause of concern and introspection for everyone, more so for the Shiromani Akali Dal and its leader Sukhbir Singh Badal. Because, it is mainly the traditional and moderate Akali base that Amritpal has made roads into.
Although Badal has put up a strong candidate, with other parties accusing him of promoting gangsters, the Akali candidate is still fighting the going tough. Traditionally, Tarn Taran has been an Akali stronghold. But like all other strongholds, including Lambi, where even the senior Badal and five-time Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal lost, this one was also stormed by the AAP. It is difficult to make out at this stage whether the AAP will be able to retain it despite so much resources and machinery at its disposal. Interestingly, the AAP has fielded Harmeet Sandhu, a three-time Akali MLA, who defected to AAP, from here.
Therefore, Tarn Taran election is being watched keenly and closely by all political parties, as it poses an entirely different challenge.
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