the-mann-of-the-moment-bhagwant-mann

All roads are currently leading to Chandigarh, Sector 2 residence of the Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann as he emerges to be the “man of the moment” for the beleaguered Aam Aadmi Party. 

 

With the AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in jail, along with his trusted deputy, Manish Sisodia, the scene and the focus have shifted to Chandigarh on his Punjab counterpart. 

 

No wonder two senior AAP leaders, Sanjay Singh and Sandeep Pathak, both MPs, have travelled all the way from Delhi to Chandigarh to meet the Chief Minister.

 

In the past, prior to Kejriwal’s arrest, it was the other way round, as Mann would mostly travel to Delhi.

 

Not only will Mann need to fill the vacuum left by Kejriwal’s arrest, he will have added responsibility in his home state, Punjab. Mann will be campaigning for the party candidates in Haryana and Gujarat, where the Congress has left one seat each of the AAP under the INDIA agreement. 

 

Mann will also be required in the national capital Delhi, for his popularity, although the AAP has a well-oiled and well-organized party structure in place there.

 

But the prime focus, and understandably so, for Mann will be Punjab where he will be leading from the front against three, and somewhere four, opponents in 13 parliamentary constituencies. He has set a target of 13-0, suggesting a clean sweep. 

 

This is an ambitious and challenging target, that is easier said than done, as the ground realities are far too different than what these were at the time of assembly elections in 2022.

 

The 2024 General Election is going to be a “do or die” battle for Mann. Not because Kejriwal is in jail, mainly because, the success or failure in the elections will be directly attributed to Mann and may have obvious consequences for whatever the result may be.

 

Mann is pitched against a strong opposition, which though fragmented, is posing a stiff challenge. His main rival will mostly be the Congress, as it is the only party, which has a “pan-Punjab” presence, cutting across the regional, caste or religious divide. 

 

While, the AAP for a while could claim a similar distinction, the over two years of anti-incumbency has placed it in a relatively difficult situation.

 

The AAP will be facing a tough challenge in the urban and Hindu-dominated areas, which are seen to be more inclined towards the BJP. 

 

The AAP is not very strong in the Doaba and Majha regions. 

 

Its area of dominance continues to be the Malwa region mainly, which covers seven of the 13 parliamentary constituencies.

 

If Mann can turn the contest into the ‘AAP versus the rest”, he stands a good chance to win maximum seats. But again, that is easier said than done. The General Elections, this time, are BJP-centric, more specifically the Modi-centric and not the AAP-centric or Mann-centric.

 

Moreover, the AAP's record in the parliamentary elections is not very encouraging. Rather it stands in quite contrast to its performance in the assembly elections, whether in Delhi or Punjab. 

 

For example, while AAP had won 67 of the 70 assembly segments in Delhi in the 2015 assembly elections, in the parliamentary elections in 2019, it drew a blank as not only did it lose all the seven constituencies in Delhi, but its candidate came third in five constituencies. 

 

And one year later, in the 2020 assembly elections, the AAP again repeated the spectacular performance in the assembly polls, winning 63 of the 70 seats.

 

In Punjab also, its parliamentary record so far has remained mixed. While in the 2014 General Elections, it shocked everyone winning four of the 13 seats in its first attempt, in 2019, it could only win from Sangrur, handsomely though, where Mann was himself the candidate. 

 

The party lost the deposit in all the 12 remaining constituencies with a total 6 per cent vote share. But in 2022, it won a landslide victory winning 92 of the 117 assembly segments. 

 

Mann’s job becomes difficult also because Punjab has mostly voted against the state ruling party in the General Elections. Since 1999, it was only once, in 2019, that the ruling party won more seats than the opposition. 

 

The difference was not much as it was 8:6 in favour of the ruling Congress. Otherwise, in all the General Elections, the state ruling party has fared badly as compared to the opposition.

 

That is because, the parliamentary elections in Punjab fall almost during the midterm of the state assembly, after about two and a half years. 

 

This is the time when anti-incumbency is at its peak and people normally vent their ire on the state ruling party. 

 

But this record is of the times, when it was mostly a bipolar contest only. This time it is going to be a multi-polar contest, four-cornered and in some constituencies even a five-cornered contest. 

 

It does provide a slight hope to the ruling party, as not many votes will be needed to win a constituency. 

 

But that holds for all the contesting parties, as by and large they have their own respective pockets of influence with the assured vote count.

 

It is going to be a challenging task ahead for Mann. In any case, even if Kejriwal were not jailed, in Punjab it was going to be the “Mann’s election” as the outcome would be directly attributed to him. He is a very strong and effective campaigner. 

 

The AAP owes a lot to him for its entry and glorious success in Punjab.  The expectations remain quite high amidst a tough and challenging task for Mann.