tumultuous-road-ahead-for-benjamin-netanyahu

 

Benjamin Netanyahu knows what it is like to be isolated. What he doesn’t know, however, is how to be irrelevant. Declared a war criminal by the International Court of Justice, the Israeli prime minister has remained stubborn in the face of arrest warrants, sanctions and boycotts; just as long as he gets to rule the roost. However, little did the Israeli prime minister anticipate that the chickens might be coming home to roost too, as warned by his staunch critics for a long time now. While the think-tanks still stay busy dwelling on the future course of action for Gaza, they also stay soft focussed on what’s next for Israel's PM. 

 

Almost a day after Netanyahu stressed that Israel would determine who enters Gaza and which foreign forces would be a part of the planned international force, President Trump reiterated, “he will decide what I believe is right”, when it came to the long-term resolution of the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Back home, things are not looking good as Netanyahu’s main allies from the far right side have strongly opposed the ceasefire, wanting to push for resettlement and annexation of the Gaza Strip.

In the meanwhile, in an unfortunate turn of events likely to have unfavourable repercussions, the ceasefire was breached after both sides accused each other of doing the same. Gaza officials said at least 101 fatalities were brought to hospitals, including 35 children, as a result of Israeli airstrikes on October 29 in the Gaza city. 

 

Who won and what? 

So has Netanyahu won the war? A question posed by his allies and critics alike repeatedly throughout, before and after the ceasefire deal. For Netanyahu, portraying the ceasefire deal as initiated by him and as a victory is crucial. Not only does Netanyahu have had to justify the war, but also sell the ceasefire to his far-right allies and to the Israeli public alike. Has his leadership been instrumental in reaching a deal, or a military win over Hamas or securing the hostages back? Not all of the answers are clear or work in his favour.

 

Soon after the news of the agreement on October 9, the advocacy group of Israeli soldiers called Soldiers for the Hostages released a statement giving complete credit to US president and none to him, “We are deeply grateful to President Donald Trump for bringing us to the long-awaited moment — a moment that would not have come without his decisive pressure on the Israeli government. That pressure forces our leaders to face reality and accept what we have been saying and fighting for over a year — there was never any military path to victory in Gaza.” 

 

Israel, at a political crossroad 

It’s a slippery slope back home for Netanyahu, with elections scheduled for October 2026. The opposition, although weak and fragmented, will try to cash in on anti-Netanyahu sentiment sweeping much of the Western and Arab world. With elections less than a year away, at least 11 new political parties have been registered in Israel.

Meanwhile, the coalition partners and the opposition will try with all their might to unseat Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party. In the run up to elections they are likely to find the platform and the audience to offer the nation the path of peace, reconciliation, dialogue and cooperation. Demands for a committee to investigate the security failures leading to October 7 hangs over Netanyahu’s head like a sword of Damocles; especially given the fact that the PM in the past had confirmed that such a committee could be formed only after the war ends. 

 

Interestingly, the current government came to power in the last week of October 2022 after pushing out the robust coalition government, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid Party — the only people who had briefly paused 12 straight years of Netanyahu’s rule. Then there are corruption charges and a long-running trial that has to be faced eventually. In July of this year, an Israeli court cancelled hearings in Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial, accepting his request on, “classified diplomatic and security grounds”, in the wake of the ongoing war. That immunity could soon end. 

 

Total victory alludes

 

Netanyahu’s staunch critics have painted a dark picture on what’s next for him. Or rather what awaits him. Things are very different from three years ago when he waged a war on Gaza. The prolonged war has been followed by an acute humanitarian crisis, protests spilling onto the streets, and divisive opinions taking over from newsrooms to power corridors. With the world turned against, a declared war criminal by ICJ and election imminent in the next one year, there is an upheaval in the world of Netanyahu. 

Last week, an effigy of the Israeli Prime Minister hanging from a construction crane in the Turkish city of Trabzon drew strong condemnation from Israeli authorities and state media alike. The hanging effigy was accompanied by a banner reading, “Death penalty for Netanyahu.” Offenses are often taken when there is a hint of possibility or truth in it, which is what happened in this case. Netanyahu has long adapted to hostile noises, but can he do the same with collective echo?