It is too late in the day that Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, two estranged cousins have finally united to form an alliance of two respective political parties they are heading. Even now they have not merged their two outfits into one, but have retained separate identities. Uddhav’s Shiv Sena- Uddhav Bal Thackeray (SS-UBT) and Raj’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) have come together and formed an alliance, when nothing much is left of their two respective parties. Their only desperate hope is to reclaim their traditional stronghold of Mumbai.
Although the two brothers claim to inherit the great political legacy of Bal Thackeray, Uddhav’s father and Raj’s uncle, nothing much is left for them to inherit. Most of the Shiv Sainiks who owed allegiance to the party since the days of the senior Thackeray have moved along with the rival faction headed by Eknath Shinde, who heads the Shiv Sena-Shinde (SSS) faction. Shinde managed to get the official party symbol, bow and arrow also from the Election Commission of India. In the 2024 assembly elections, Shinde faction walked out with a maximum number of 57 seats while Uddhav’s faction was left with just 20 seats.
By aligning with his cousin Raj, who is known to take aggressively bullying posture about the Maratha identity with his supporters targeting the non-Marathi speaking people, Uddhav has taken the risk of getting marginalized from the Maha Vikas Agadi opposition alliance consisting of two other parties, the Congress and the Sharad Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party. The two parties were already not very much comfortable with the Shiv Sena for ideological reasons, with Raj, known for his aggressively brash ways of imposing his xenophobic agenda, aligning with Uddhav, the Congress and the NCP may find it difficult to carry on with him in future.
The immediate reason for the two cousins to come together is the ensuing elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, earlier known as Bombay Municipal Corporation (BMC). The two cousins expect to revive their political fortunes in Mumbai, which has been a traditional stronghold of the Sena in its heyday. With the Bharatiya Janata Party having surged ahead and most of the Shiv Sena space having been taken away by Shinde, the two cousins appear to have realized that coming together was the only option if they had to survive politically. That looks a tall order though.
The last BMC elections were held in 2017. Although the Shiv Sena and BJP were still allies till that time, they could not reach an agreement on the seat sharing for the crucial BMC elections and they fought separately, with Shiv Sena winning 84 and the BJP winning 82 wards. After the elections, the Shiv Sena and BJP came together and elected the Mayor from Shiv Sena.
Also read: Stop chasing names, start listening to Epstein’s victims
Having fallen apart from the BJP now, Uddhav knows his grip over Mumbai has been lost. Aligning with the estranged cousin is the last resort for an already lost cause. After forging an alliance with Raj, it will be difficult for the Congress and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP to align with them given the Raj’s political posturing that goes against the basic ideological foundations of the Congress and the NCP. If the situation demands later, there is a possibility of a post-poll alliance between the Congress, NCP and the Shiv Sena and the MNS to elect a non-BJP Mayor.
In all likelihood, the Uddhav-Raj alliance will spell the death knell for the Maharashtra Vikas Agadi, an earlier alliance of the Shiv Sena(UBT), the Congress and the NCP(SP). The Congress has clearly spelt out that it cannot go along with the MNS. Moreover, the party has realized that while the Congress vote would get transferred to the Shiv Sena (UBT), the reverse was not happening as the SS-UBT supporters, who subscribe to core Hindutva ideology, rarely vote for the Congress.
Otherwise also, the SS-UBT has lost much of its ground. In the 2024 assembly elections, while the Shinde faction of the Sena got 57 seats, the Uddhav faction got only 20 seats. The MVA met a rout in these elections after having performed phenomenally well in the General Elections held about six months before. This has prompted the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to allege bungling in the elections, which he calls “vote-chori” (vote theft).
Uddhav did not have any option other than aligning with his cousin, Raj in the desperate hope that may be the two of them together might win the Mumbai Municipal Corporation. However, that seems to be a long shot. Most of the Shiv Sena cadres have walked out along with the Shinde faction. With Raj aligning with him, Uddhav can hardly expect support from the non-Marathi voters who are in substantial numbers in Mumbai. The alliance’s only hope is in case the Congress asks its supporters to vote “tactfully” to deny the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde) victory in these elections, which otherwise it appears to be poised to win. After all, the BJP and the Shiv Sena-Shinde also come from the same Maharashtra that Uddhav and Raj come from.
The two cousins did close the ranks out of survival concerns, but they seem to have done it quite late in the day, when the others have already stolen the march and are far ahead.
Follow us
