May 4 will be remembered as a watershed day by most people, at least in the political corridors. The fate of four states — West Bengal, Assam, Keralam and Tamil Nadu — and one Union Territory, Puducherry was decided. Election result day can be perceived as the conclusion of a story. However, in some cases, it sets the stage for the larger climax to unfold. A similar situation is brewing, for instance, in the state of Tamil Nadu.
Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has taken a comfortable lead in the state — won 108 seats in their maiden election — yet could not attain the magic figure, thereby creating a room for several permutations and combinations.
Reports are suggesting that the TVK is considering an alliance with the Congress, Left and other regional parties to get the majority mark. However, no major consensus has been reached on the plan ahead.
As per the mathematical derivation, the TVK needs 10 more seats to form the government. CPI and CPI(M) have secured 2 seats each. And the Congress has 5 seats in its kitty. So, the Left+Congress+TVK arithmetic falls short of the majority mark. They will have to approach at least the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) or others.
In this case, a rainbow of coalition government can be formed. However, the tenacity of it can be put to test every now and then.
The TVK should try looking beyond what is appearing to be probable. How about forming the government with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)? The party has won 47 seats, thus, holding the third position in the 2026 political mandate of the state.
For the Tamil Nadu elections, the AIADMK and the Bharatiya Janata Party contested as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) front, nonetheless, since the election is over, so can be the alliance. Severing ties with one’s partner is nothing new in the political arena. After all, the BJP managed to win only one seat out of the 27 constituencies allotted to the party as part of the seat-sharing agreement with the AIADMK.
They say: First impression is the last impression. TVK contested for the first time and left behind all the heavy-weights. Now, all eyes are on how Vijay gets the majority, thereafter how his government will live up to the expectations of state’s citizens— all of this will be Vijay’s first. And for a debutant, the stakes are existential. After all, one never gets a second chance to make a first impression.
First, if the TVK forms the alliance with the AIADMK then the math appears to be correct. With a combined total of over 155, the alliance would provide a stable majority in the 234-member assembly, far exceeding the 118 magic figure. This would reduce the chances of horse-trading and the uncertainty of a minority government will not hover over Vijay.
Second, the results indicate a clear rejection of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) administration. Henceforth, by aligning with the AIADMK, Vijay would become the face of those who voted in favour of anti-incumbency.
Third, the TVK brings the energy of youth and first-time voters who are looking for a ‘new direction’. The AIADMK, on the other hand, comes with a traditional cadre base and a legacy of governance. Together, they can represent a formidable ‘people’s front’.
Additionally, the AIADMK has deep roots in rural Tamil Nadu and a bench of experienced erstwhile ministers. This would reassure the public that the new government has the technical expertise to run the state from day one.
For the AIADMK, partnering with the TVK can be viewed as a survival strategy. After several electoral setbacks, joining a winning momentum helps them remain relevant and keeps their cadre motivated. For the TVK, the AIADMK’s support ensures they do not get isolated by the DMK’s formidable alliances.
It is complementary to suggest that the AIADMK traditionally also has strong influence in the Western belt and some specific rural demographics. And the TVK certainly has shown strength across urban centres across all regions. An alliance like this would, hence, create a ‘Pan-Tamil Nadu’ footprint that the DMK would find difficult to dislodge in upcoming local or national elections.
Moreover, negotiations between the TVK and the AIADMK would hinge on— the CM-post factor, power sharing, and new politics narrative.
The TVK, as the larger party, would pitch for the Chief Minister’s post and rooting for Vijay to be the CM. The AIADMK would likely bargain for ‘Deputy CM’ status and key portfolios such as Home, Finance, or PWD in order to maintain their influence.
Vijay’s campaign focused on ‘changing the system’. So while partnering with an established Dravidian party like the AIADMK, TVK would require to ensure that the purpose of ‘alternative politics’ is not diluted.
Also read: Vijay’s TVK in alliance talks with Cong, Left: Sources
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