The first and foremost thing after the breakdown of talks between the United States and Iran will be and should be to ensure that the two-week ceasefire does not come to an end. The ceasefire, in fact, was never foolproof right from the start, as Israel continued to attack Lebanon.
While Iran holds that the ceasefire applies to all hostilities, the US and Iran have been maintaining that it does not apply to Lebanon. Hezbollah is a strong Iranian ally, which it cannot and will not abandon at any cost. Israel is targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
That the ceasefire is already under severe strain is obvious from the breakdown of the negotiations. The topmost and urgent priority of the peace brokers like Pakistan should be to ensure that the ceasefire does not get violated. Countries like Turkey and Egypt, which also had a role in facilitating the Islamabad peace talks should also use their energy and influence to prevail upon the two hostile countries to stick to the ceasefire irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations.
It is a million dollar question whether these countries can really influence the warring countries to exercise restraint. Pakistan obviously cannot do it and not at least on its own.
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An angry and outraged US President Donald Trump must be feeling scorned by Iran that it did not accept his proposals. With due apologies to William Shakespeare, hell hath no fury like Trump scorned! In all likelihood, he may try to assert and impose the US ‘supremacy’ that has come under doubt during the Iran campaign. He has already announced that the US will not allow any flow of traffic from the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Navy has been asked to ensure that there is no inflow and outflow of traffic from the Iranian ports. He has made it clear that he will not allow Iran the sole monopoly of control over the Strait of Hormuz. That actually has now been the main bone of contention. Trump is trying to rally the support of its allies like the NATO countries and Japan to join his ‘Iran blockade’.
If and when the US starts the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it will have furthermore impact on the global energy crisis, which were triggered when Iran restricted traffic across the Strait. As Iran allowed limited traffic, it provided some breather from the energy crisis. Once the US Navy starts blocking the entire flow, it will complicate the matters further. Besides, Iran will try to resist and retaliate and how far it can succeed remains to be seen. The Strait has once again become the flashpoint and more dangerous this time.
The breakdown of the negotiations is attributed to Iran’s refusal to agree to two important terms; handing over the enriched uranium with a commitment that it will not develop/build nuclear weapons in future also and joint control of the Strait of Hormuz along with the United States. Iran has no reason to accept any of these terms. Rather, it has strong reasons not to accept these terms.
The Iranians must be regretting in hindsight that despite not having built the nuclear arsenal they were subjected to severe sanctions and eventually a brutal attack. Had Iran gone ahead with building the nuclear arsenal, like North Korea, the US and Israel would have thought twice before going ahead with the war with it. Now that Iran has already faced and suffered the worst, it is unlikely to agree to any commitment on not developing nuclear weapons.
Again the current war with the US and Israel made Iran realise the importance of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, without which nobody would care about the country. Nobody would bother about the US and Israel ransacking the country and running over it.
Iran, without a nuclear arsenal and also without control over the Strait of Hormuz would be like another Lebanon for the US and Israel. At no cost can Iran afford to concede its legitimate and exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz, which it has turned into a chokepoint for the global energy trade.
Last but not the least, in the ongoing negotiations it will be naïve to imagine that Iran is negotiating just on its own. It has the strong and reliable backing of China and Russia. The US intelligence agencies are suspecting that China has been providing weapons support, besides other things, to Iran. The US is believed to have specific inputs about China providing shoulder-propelled missiles to Iran, which can be used to fire at the low flying aircrafts. This might just be a small proportion of the quantum of support that China is providing to Iran.
China is still discreet in its support to Iran, but Russia does not have any such compunctions. Russia has more reasons to support Iran and ensure that the US remains embroiled in war with it. Iran is proving to be a counter to Ukraine. What the US did with Russia on Ukraine, Russia is repeating the favour through Iran. Obviously it would like that Iran continues to ‘bleed’ the US in whatever proportion.
Iran apparently is also trying to bide time and drag the US further as the midterms are getting closer there. There is massive and widespread disapproval in the US against war with Iran. Even a majority of MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters of Trump also do not approve of war. Trump actually wants to get an early exit, which Iran seems not prepared to provide him.
That explains his frustration and desperation to get more aggressive. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may just be the beginning of another crisis, both military as well as energy.
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