By VIMAL SUMBLY
Nobody knows why the United States went for war against Iran even when it was negotiating and had accepted all the terms. Even US President Donald Trump is not clear. The US has continuously changed the goalposts since it launched an attack on the Middle East country on February 28.
If regime change was the purpose, the US appears to have badly failed so far. Rather, the attack has united majority of Iranians against the foreign aggression. Even those who were aggressively campaigning for regime change have turned defensive and have withdrawn, lest they be damned as traitors and collaborators with the foreign aggressor.
No matter what the US President claims about his country having completely destroyed Iran, facts are quite contrary. Iran is putting up a very strong resistance against not only the neighbouring gulf countries but Israel also. With limited access to credible information, since an overwhelming majority of the news sources and news outlets are completely biased against Iran, the fact that the US and Israel have not been able to declare a victory even after the passage of ten days speaks for itself. As predicted right in the beginning of the war, Iran is not like Syria or Venezuela.
Iran has proved all predictions correct. It is now publicly acknowledged that Iran, so far, has succeeded in “war of attrition” where it is trying to tire its opponents out with a prolonged battle. Besides, compared to the US and Israel, Iran’s weaponry is far cheaper. Iran is inflicting heavy losses on the two powerful countries with its own drones, which it produces at a relatively very low cost. Iran has scientifically made a lot of progress and development. In fact, Iran had been supplying missiles to Russia in its war against Ukraine.
It will be naïve to imagine that the United States and Israel will be able to finish the war within a short period at their own liking and choosing. Once the war starts, it is under nobody’s control as to when, how and who will end it. The US and Israel will learn it in due course of time. And if they leave an unfinished war, no matter how much physical damage they may have inflicted on Iran, if the regime survives, it will not be a victory for them (the US and Israel). More they try to use force, there will be more resistance and much more support from the Iranians to the regime that the US and Israel sought to change.
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As the war prolongs and progresses in due course of time, the US will realise that it has opened a front in the Middle East, the way Russia has opened a front in the neighbouring Ukraine. The difference is that the theatre of war in the Middle East is quite far from the US, while in the case of Ukraine it is exactly next door. Ukraine obviously is not fighting on its own as it is getting substantial support from the US and the European countries. It is this support that is sustaining the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russia and China are helping Iran in this war in multiple ways, which also includes military hardware and diplomatic support. On the other hand, the US and Israel are not finding much support and cooperation from the traditional allies, so much infuriating the US President. After the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially showed his reluctance but later offered support, Trump snubbed him that the US does not need any supporters when it had already won the, which though the US has really not won so far.
Russia and China will like the Gulf War to continue since it keeps the US engaged. So far, the US was watching from a safe distance. Its support to Ukraine was also wavering after Trump took over. Now, in Iran the US is directly involved. Till now the US has been clear that it will not send any ground troops to Iran. But as the war prolongs, so does Trump's desperation and frustration. Besides, known for his whimsical and mercurial ways of doing things, it may not be surprising if Trump orders ground troops to be deployed in Iran. That obviously will escalate the war in Iran to another level, with assured destruction and loss of lives. Trump has already alerted the Americans that there is likely going to be more loss of lives.
As of now, there seems to be no way out. Trump, sooner or later, may realise that he has thrust this war upon himself and the Americans. It is the same Trump who would always argue against the American military engagements in different parts of the world. Quite contrary to his positioning in the past, he is now proactively pursuing a war with Iran, which in no case will provide any honourable exit for the US.
Like Russia remains engaged in Ukraine, the US has volunteered to remain engaged in the Middle East without any rhyme or reason. Unlike Russia, which has high stakes in Ukraine, the US really does not have any stakes in Iran.
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