Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East are sending mixed signals across the globe. While one section of the international community believes that a comprehensive peace deal between the United States and Iran has been achieved, others argue that it is merely a small and fragile step towards peace.
In reality, both sides are partially correct in their assessment. No major fighting is currently taking place, yet nothing concrete is being implemented on the ground.
All major parties to the conflict—Iran, Israel, and the United States—have stopped short of committing to a final, binding agreement. This ambiguity has triggered serious concern in the global community about the durability of the current understanding.
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Washington and Tehran, which Israel has strongly opposed, has been hailed by some world leaders as a “historic breakthrough". However, in reality, it is little more than a temporary extension of an already agreed ceasefire, along with vague promises to work towards finding a lasting solution to the long-standing crisis.
For ordinary citizens living in the Middle East, there is very little to celebrate. After months of fear, destruction, and economic hardship caused by constant escalations, this “pause button” offers only short-term relief rather than genuine peace.
What’s in the deal?
The primary gains for America are practical. The deal ensures that oil tankers can once again pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing an immediate full-scale war. Iran has agreed, at least temporarily, not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons. This gives the Trump administration something to present as a diplomatic achievement. Additionally, Iran has agreed to halt direct attacks on Israel and other regional countries, which had raised fears of a wider regional war.
Iran has secured significant concessions. The United States has lifted its naval blockade and agreed to release approximately $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Tehran can now sell its crude oil to Asian markets without facing fresh sanctions.
However, the US has firmly rejected Iran’s demand for $350 billion in war damages compensation. Notably, the agreement does not address Iran’s ballistic missile programme. President Trump defended this omission by stating that it would be unfair to deny Iran such capabilities when other countries in the region, including Israel, already possess them.
Why the deal favours Iran
From a broader strategic perspective, many analysts argue that the current memorandum favours Iran more than the United States. After 108 days of intense negotiations, Donald Trump, who wanted to end the war on his own terms, appears to have settled for largely symbolic results rather than concrete, long-term gains.
Also read: Trump-Pezeshkian sign MoU to end US-Iran war
A formal peace treaty is scheduled to be signed on Friday, but its successful implementation remains a major challenge for mediators such as Pakistan and Oman.
Impact on common people
The short but intense Iran war has affected not just the people of the Gulf but also ordinary citizens across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Most Asian economies, including India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, import between 60 and 80 per cent of their energy from the Gulf region. Any disruption in energy supplies immediately triggers economic uncertainty and inflation worldwide.
According to latest estimates, the Iran war caused losses of around $350-400 billion to Iran, over $100 billion to the United States, $70-100 billion to Israel, and more than $2 trillion to the global economy and financial markets in less than four months.
For the common man, this translated into higher prices for petrol, diesel, groceries, cooking gas, and almost every essential commodity. Small businesses suffered losses, daily wage workers struggled to make ends meet, and inflation quietly ate away at whatever little savings families had managed to build.
Major issues still unresolved
Despite the signing of the MoU, several critical problems remain completely unaddressed:
- Iran’s advanced ballistic missile programme continues to exist as one of Tehran’s most potent deterrents
- Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon have not stopped
- Deep mistrust between Iran, Israel, and the United States persists
- A comprehensive long-term nuclear agreement is still many months, if not years, away
This deal is undoubtedly better than open war. It has reduced the immediate risk of a major conflict and may bring some short-term stability to oil prices. It also provides diplomats with valuable time to work on more difficult issues. However, calling it “peace” is misleading and raises false hopes among people who have already suffered too much.
Impact on Trump’s legacy
The Iran conflict has undeniably damaged Trump’s image as a “peace president". Despite heavy pressure from hardliners within his administration and pro-Israel voices, Trump ultimately chose de-escalation.
Many believe he realised that a full-scale war against Iran would be too costly, both financially and politically, and could result in high American casualties.
His approval ratings reportedly dropped to as low as 34 per cent in the aftermath of controversial strikes, and he is now facing growing resistance from Congress, which has attempted to limit presidential war powers.
By Waseem Ahmed Ganie
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