The Bharatiya Janata Party is putting everything at stake in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir to have its own Chief Minister. However, the fight is quite tough as in most of the 47 assembly segments falling in Kashmir valley it has either negligible or no presence.
The party banks upon the 43 assembly segments falling in the Jammu region. Even in the Jammu region, the demography does not favour the party in all the assembly segments.
Last time, in 2014 the BJP had performed the best so far since independence winning 25 seats and was a close second to the People’s Democratic Party, which got 28 seats. Later the two parties formed a post-poll coalition headed by late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, who became the Chief Minister for the second time.
It was for the first time that the BJP had participated in the state government in Jammu and Kashmir having its own Deputy Chief Minister and several ministers. The coalition fell apart after the demise of Sayeed, although his daughter Mehbooba Mufti headed the government for a while with BJP’s support.
For the BJP it is also a battle of prestige since these are the first assembly elections in the union territory, previously a state, after the abrogation of Article 370. The BJP maintains that the abrogation of Article 370 has “completely transformed” Jammu and Kashmir. The election results will obviously be reflective of the people’s reaction to the abrogation.
For the BJP holding to the 25 seats it won in 2014 will also be a challenge in the Jammu region itself. The Congress, which is fighting the elections in alliance with the National Conference, will be a better force this time as compared to 2014 when it had to bear the brunt of anti-incumbency.
Although there is no elected government in place in the union territory for a long time, as the state has been under the President’s Rule since 2018, it is deemed to be the “BJP rule” only in the state. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha is a senior BJP leader and the BJP appointee only.
There is an element of “anti-incumbency” against the BJP in the Jammu region also. Besides, there has been strong resentment in some assembly segments from where the party fielded some turncoats from other parties.
In the Jammu region, the BJP is mostly placed in a direct fight with the Congress-National Conference alliance candidates. In some places, it may also be a triangular fight with Congress and NC resorting to “friendly” fights in these constituencies.
Much will depend on the results in the 47 assembly segments of Kashmir region where it is going to be a multi-cornered contest in all the constituencies. It will be the NC-Congress alliance, the People’s Democratic Party, the People’s Conference, the Awami Itehad Party (of Engineer Rashid) as also the BJP, which have fielded their candidates everywhere.
Right now, the BJP remains an isolated party with no other party prepared to align with it at this stage. Even Engineer Rashid, whose party is expected to do better given his performance in the parliamentary elections and the presence of people in his rallies, has also indicated that he can go along with the Indian
National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) with certain conditions.
But, nothing is impossible in politics. The actual picture will be clear only after the election results. After all, the now “chronic critics” of the BJP like the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party have aligned with the BJP in the past and joined coalition governments in the centre and in the state.
During the 2014 assembly election campaign, the PDP and the BJP had spit venom against each other. But the two parties took no time to form a post-poll coalition headed by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as the Chief Minister and Dr Nirmal Singh of the BJP as the Deputy Chief Minister.
This time the BJP has set the higher goal of having its own Chief Minister, a challenging and difficult task but certainly not impossible. It will all depend upon the composition of the new assembly.
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