Recently Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita Kejriwal described her husband as the ‘Lal’ of Haryana. She was referring to Kejriwal’s Haryana roots. Kejriwal was born in Bhiwani district in Haryana.
He later went to IIT, joined civil services and eventually ended up in politics after a long struggle.
Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is trying its luck in Haryana for the third time. Till now, it has completely drawn a blank in all the elections it contested in the state since 2014. In the last General Elections, the AAP had aligned with the Congress and contested the lone Kurukshetra seat, where Sushil Gupta, as the common candidate of the INDIA bloc lost to Naveen Jindal of the BJP.
The AAP is buoyed by the fact that it has governments in two neighbouring states of Haryana. In Punjab, it has an overwhelming presence in the Vidhan Sabha and has been in power since 2022. In Delhi, it has been in power for over ten years now and that too with a sweeping majority.
The AAP will be contesting the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections on its own. It is banking on the influence in the areas bordering Delhi and Punjab. The party does have some pockets of influence in these areas and it wants to build upon that, although that looks to be a tall order.
In none of the previous elections, the AAP has made any significant impact and its vote percentage share has been inconsequential. Right now there is no visible attraction for the party in the state, either.
Besides, it is handicapped because of the absence of its supreme leader Arvind Kejriwal, who is in jail in the Delhi Excise policy case. While his bail plea is pending in the courts, and the Haryana elections are still about two months away, much of the AAP’s prospects hinge on his fate.
After all, Kejriwal does make a difference with his presence. He has a phenomenal capacity to connect with the people. Moreover, Haryana happens to be his home state only where he was born and brought up.
However, Haryana, unlike Punjab and Delhi, will be more challenging. In Haryana, the political space is already too crowded. There is the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the opposition Congress, and two different factions led by two descendants of iconic Jat leader Devi Lal.
AAP in Haryana will have to carve out a space among these powerful contenders. In Punjab, there was always a space for a third alternative other than the Congress and the Akalis (who were in alliance with the BJP). This third force did rise from time to time led by different leaders. AAP identified this space and occupied it and consolidated its position eventually sweeping to power.
In Haryana, the space for the “third force/alternative” has already been occupied by the BJP, now. Despite being in power for ten years, it still retains a strong hold over the state. It may be facing strong anti-incumbency, but it remains very much the lead player in Haryana, with a slight edge over its opponents.
Unlike in Punjab, where the AAP got overwhelming support from the dominant and powerful peasantry/Jatt community, it has not been able to make any such impact in Haryana, where the Jaat (in Haryana it is pronounced as Jaat) community is mostly aligned with the Congress and also to some extent with the Indian National Lok Dal headed by Abhay Chautala, grandson of Devi Lal and the Jannayak Janata Party headed by Dushyant Chautala, a great-grandson of Devi Lal.
The AAP can play a spoilsport in Haryana for both the Congress as well as the ruling BJP. One view is that it might take away some anti-incumbency votes, which would otherwise go to the Congress. The other opinion is that it can attract some sections of the voters, like those from the Bania, Punjabi and downtrodden classes, who have mostly switched over to the BJP since 2014.
In neighbouring Delhi, the AAP has taken away a substantial chunk of the Bania community votes, which to a large extent goes to it (the AAP) in the assembly elections and possibly to the BJP during the parliamentary elections.
Much will depend on Kejriwal’s fate. If he is able to get the bail, he will for sure lead an effective and impactful campaign in Haryana. Whether that impact translates into votes, will remain to be seen. The emotional card being played by the AAP, by projecting him as the ‘Lal’ (a dear son) of Haryana may not work much, since he is not contesting from the state himself. He is already the Chief Minister of Delhi.
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