rahul-upcoming-minority-icon-in-lalu-mulayam-mould

Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi has finally managed to emerge as an icon for the minorities across the country, in the same mould as Lalu Prasad Yadav used to be in Bihar and Mulayam Singh Yadav used to be in Uttar Pradesh during and in the aftermath of the Ram Janambhoomi movement in the 1990s.

 

The Congress under Gandhi’s leadership is gradually moving forward to reclaim the ‘minority’ space it had conceded to two regional parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal led by Lalu Yadav in Bihar and Samajwadi Party led by late Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh.

 

Gandhi’s campaign was moulded in a particular way to appeal to the same segment of voters, with minorities, mostly the Muslims being the main focus, to be cultivated. During his campaign speeches, Gandhi would often allude to his “ninety per cent” theory, which he claimed had been marginalised and sidelined by the “ten per cent” elite. Although he never elaborated or explained who constituted that “ten per cent”, the message was not lost on anyone. 

 

He would give the 'break up', saying that there were 50 per cent backward classes, 15 per cent Dalits, 8 per cent Adivasis and 15 per cent minorities. Actually it is the Muslim population among the minorities, which is about 15 percent. If Christians and Sikhs are added, it comes to around 20 per cent. His reference was apparently aimed mainly towards this particular community, particularly in places like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. West Bengal, the Congress had virtually surrendered to Mamata Bannerjee, in the process sacrificing its party leader in the outgoing Lok Sabha Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. 

 

The strategy did seem to work for Gandhi had his Congress as was evident in Uttar Pradesh, where in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, it won 45 of the 80 seats. Congress won seven on its own. 

 

The Samajwadi Party may be under the impression that it bailed out the Congress and helped it win maximum seats, in the long run, the party may regret having aligned with the Congress and offered it the space that was exclusively of the Samajwadi Party’s. 

 

Mamata Banerjee's hostile resistance towards Congress by not letting it any foothold in West Bengal should serve as a lesson for Akhilesh Yadav. Mamata did not concede any space to the Congress there. She knows very well that if the Congress succeeds in Bengal it will be at the cost of her party, the Trinamool Congress and not the Bharatiya Janata Party. 

 

Similarly, if and when the Congress succeeds in strengthening its position in Uttar Pradesh, it will not be at the cost of the BJP, it will be mainly at the cost of the Samajwadi Party. The Muslims, who have traditionally been unfailingly with the Samajwadi Party, have started looking towards Congress in preference of the SP. 

Right now, there is no conflict of interest between the Congress and the Samajwadi. If and when the Congress and the SP decide to part ways, the bulk of the Muslim vote will switch over to the Congress from the SP. The Muslims have already deserted the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

 

The party supremo, Mayawati was so much annoyed that she named the community that its leaders had betrayed her and her party despite having accommodated them extensively.

 

The reason for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s midway course correction in the campaign theme, was because the Congress had managed to polarize and consolidate the “minority” vote towards itself. It not only happened in Uttar Pradesh and other parts of the country, it also happened in Punjab where the party managed to get maximum “minority” votes as the battle at the end turned into “far” and “against” Modi.

 

Minorities constitute about 20 per cent of votes in India. The Congress has managed to get 21.19 per cent votes, almost completely corresponding with the minority vote share. This was because the Congress did manage to “polarize” the minority votes against the BJP across the country and all minority communities.

 

It is a strange paradox that while it was the Congress, that openly tried to polarize the voters in the name of caste and religion, as Gandhi would specifically mention castes and minorities, it blamed the BJP and the Prime Minister in particular for polarisation. Polarisation is not a one-way affair, but a double-way process. Polarisation leads to ‘reverse polarization’ at the same time. 

 

The minorities, the Muslims in particular, have mostly rallied behind the Congress. It was the erosion of this vote bank due to the emergence of leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad Yadav earlier and now Mamata Banerjee, who bluntly resorted to minority communalism.

 

Mulayam Singh Yadav, as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh even ordered firing on the Karsevaks along the banks of river Saryu, which left several of them dead. 

 

With Mulayam Yadav already having passed away and Lalu Yadav being only a pale shadow of his past, Congress has a fair chance to regain its traditional vote bank and it seems to have gained it to a significant extent. Mamata Banerjee may also not be able to hold on for long.

 

In Bengal, however, the Congress has another strong competitor on the left, which is trying to regain its hold on the minority votes there. 

 

Interestingly, in Punjab also, the Congress has managed to rally behind itself a majority of Sikhs.

 

Otherwise, the majority of the Sikh voters would prefer other parties over the Congress because of Operation Bluestar during which the Indian Army entered into Golden Temple to flush out militants, which led to devastating loss of lives and damage to the holy shrine, and the anti-Sikh riots of Delhi and other parts of the country in the aftermath of the assassination of Prime Minister Ms Indira Gandhi by her own Sikh bodyguards.

 

BJP lost some parliamentary constituencies in Punjab like Ludhiana, Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Ferozepur, and Patiala, primarily because of polarisation and the consequent “reverse polarization” as eventually the electoral contest turned into “far” and “against” Modi. 

 

Rahul Gandhi has managed to polarize the minorities across the country against the BJP, Modi in particular.

 

This, coupled with some good alliances, has helped him to almost double the strength of his MPs from 52 to 99 in the Lok Sabha. But sticking to a particular section of the polarized vote bank may help him take his tally from 50 to 100, it will certainly not lead him to go much further and certainly not as far as even up to the 200 mark.