With the path cleared for the bypoll in the Milkipur seat of Ayodhya, the ruling BJP is aiming to continue its winning streak, while the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) is determined to retain control over this high-profile constituency.
The BJP is expected to focus on uniting the Hindu vote, using slogans like ‘batenge toh katenge’ (divided we perish), while the SP will lean on its ‘PDA’ plank, which aims to connect with pichda (OBCs), Dalits, and alpshanyak (minorities)—the core groups that propelled the SP’s strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won 37 seats compared to the BJP’s 33.
In the recently concluded bypolls to nine seats, the BJP emerged victorious in six, including traditional SP strongholds like Kundarki in Moradabad, while its ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), won one. This gave the BJP an impressive 7-2 record in the bypolls. The two seats retained by the SP, Karhal in Mainpuri and Sishamau in Kanpur, were won with significantly reduced margins, adding extra attention to the Milkipur contest.
The seat holds particular significance following SP leader Akhilesh Yadav’s strong criticism of the BJP after the party’s victory in the Ayodhya parliamentary seat, questioning the saffron party’s Hindutva politics. This bypoll comes after the withdrawal of legal challenges to the 2022 Milkipur election.
In Milkipur, Dalit votes are seen as pivotal, with 1.2 lakh Dalit voters out of a total electorate of 3.5 lakh. Around 55,000 Yadavs (OBCs) and 30,000 Muslims also make up key voting blocs. Political analysts suggest that the party able to secure Dalit support, along with the backing of 60,000 Brahmins, 25,000 Kshatriyas, and OBCs, is likely to win the seat.
It remains to be seen whether the SP’s ‘PDA’ formula will prove as successful in this bypoll as it did in the 2022 UP elections or if the BJP can bridge the caste divide to its advantage.
In the 2002 Milkipur election, SP’s Awadhesh Prasad defeated BJP’s Baba Gorakhnath, securing 49.99% of the vote, compared to Gorakhnath’s 41.83%. The SP has fielded Prasad’s son, Ajit Prasad, while the BJP has yet to finalise its candidate. The BSP has announced it will not contest the bypoll, and the Congress is expected to continue supporting the SP as part of the INDIA alliance.
Rajpal Kashyap, former MLC and head of the SP’s state backward unit, expressed confidence in the SP’s victory. "In the bypolls, official machinery was openly misused. This time our PDA will give a reply to the government," he said. "Ayodhya has set an example by rejecting communal politics and supporting Awadhesh Prasad, and this trend will continue."
The BJP, however, remains confident. "We have worked not only in Milkipur but across Ayodhya. Due to CM Yogi Adityanath's work, people made us successful in the bypolls, and this trend will continue. Only the BJP can ensure Milkipur’s development," said Uttar Pradesh BJP secretary Abhijat Mishra.
On Monday, the Allahabad High Court allowed the withdrawal of two petitions challenging the election of SP leader Prasad from the Milkipur constituency in the 2022 assembly elections, paving the way for the bypoll. The Milkipur seat became vacant after Prasad was elected to the Lok Sabha from Faizabad (Ayodhya) in the 2024 elections.
The Election Commission has yet to announce the date for the bypoll.
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