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Exit polls on Thursday predicted a decisive victory for the BJP and its ally, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections, signalling a dramatic shift in the power balance of India’s richest civic body after nearly three decades of Shiv Sena dominance.

An aggregate of six exit polls projected the BJP-Sena alliance winning around 132 of the 227 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 114. The opposition bloc led by Shiv Sena (UBT) and its allies was forecast to secure about 63 seats, while the Congress was pegged at around 20.

The projections suggest that the BJP has successfully stepped into the political vacuum created by the split in the Shiv Sena, weakening the reunited Thackeray brothers’ bid to reclaim the civic body they once controlled.

Axis My India and JVC both forecast a clear majority for the BJP-led alliance. JVC predicted 138 seats for the BJP and Sena, with 59 for the Shiv Sena (UBT)–Maharashtra Navnirman Sena combine and 23 for the Congress. Axis My India projected a broader range of 131–151 seats for the ruling alliance and 58–68 for the opposition.

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The Sakal Poll estimated 119 seats for the BJP-Sena and 75 for the UBT-led bloc, while Janmat projected 138 seats for the ruling combine and 62 for the opposition. DV Research and JDS also placed the BJP-Sena alliance ahead, though with narrower margins in some scenarios.

Exit poll data suggested clear voting patterns across communities. The Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS were projected to secure nearly half of the Maratha vote, while the BJP was estimated to receive about 30 per cent. Among Muslim voters, the Congress was projected to lead with 41 per cent support, followed by Shiv Sena (UBT) at 28 per cent.

North Indian and South Indian voters were reported to have backed the BJP overwhelmingly, with Axis My India estimating that nearly 68 per cent of North Indian votes went to the party. Young voters and women were also projected to have favoured the BJP.

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, with a budget comparable to that of a small state, was last elected in 2017, when the undivided Shiv Sena retained control. Eight years later, exit polls indicate that the Sena’s split may have fundamentally reshaped Mumbai’s civic politics.

Elections were also held on Thursday for 28 other civic bodies across Maharashtra, all pending since 2017. Counting of votes is scheduled for Thursday.