Interestingly, the monsoon never arrived over the Andhra Pradesh coast earlier than its expected date in the past one decade. Between 2014 and 2023, the southwest monsoon was exactly on time hitting the Andhra Pradesh coast on either June 4 or 5 in three years (2021, 2018 and 2017).
The IMD said the southwest monsoon onset over Andhra Pradesh in 2024 is most likely to take place on June 4 or June 5 (exactly on time) and the state will most likely experience above-normal rains during the season.
The state receives at least over 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the June-Sep period and the rainfall during these months replenishes the reservoir stocks, groundwater reserves and is vital for rain-fed kharif cultivation in the state.
The monsoon onset over Kerala marks the beginning of four-month long chief monsoon season in India. Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.
“In the past five years (from 2019 to 2023), the southwest monsoon onset over the state was marked on June 4 in 2021. Though June 4 is the normal data of onset of monsoon over AP, the onset of the monsoon was marked on June 11 in 2023, June 13 in 2022, June 7 in 2020 and June 20 in 2019.
However, neither an early nor a late onset of the monsoon is unusual, and after the onset of the monsoon, it may take seven to 10 days for the monsoon to spread over the entire state,” said Dr S Karuna Sagar, scientist at IMD, Amaravati.
The ‘onset’ is a purely technical statement with a specific definition. The IMD never officially declares onset until certain prescribed conditions are met. The onset of the monsoon occurs when there is a significant transition in the large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation in the Indo-Pacific region.
In 2014, southwest monsoon onset was realised on June 19, while it was on June 10 in 2015, June 9 in 2016, June 4 in 2017 and June 5 in 2018.
A delay or little early arrival has no bearing on the quality or amount of rainfall. The normal rainfall during the monsoon in the state is 514 mm
In the past 10 years (2014-2023), Andhra Pradesh recorded deficient rainfall in 2014, 2018 and 2023 during the southwest monsoon period. The cumulative rainfall deficiency stood at 18.4 per cent in 2014, 10 per cent in 2018 and 13 per cent in 2023.
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