India’s southwest monsoon is showing a striking regional imbalance this June, with Rajasthan recording above-normal rainfall even as Maharashtra continues to face a significant deficit, puzzling farmers, meteorologists and water managers alike.
While Rajasthan, a desert state, is experiencing unusually frequent showers, traditionally high-rainfall regions along the west coast, including Maharashtra, have seen weak and inconsistent monsoon activity.
Experts say the anomaly is the result of a disrupted atmospheric setup rather than a uniform failure or excess of the monsoon.
Western disturbances driving unusual rain in northwest
Meteorologists point to persistent western disturbances as a key factor behind the excess rainfall in Rajasthan. These systems, which usually affect north India in winter, have continued to interact with monsoon moisture in June, triggering thunderstorms over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.
Instead of channeling moisture southwards into central India, these interactions have shifted rainfall activity northwards, leading to above-normal precipitation in the desert state.
At the same time, the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon, which typically brings heavy rain to Maharashtra and the west coast, has remained weak this season.
Experts note that low-level wind systems, including the Somali Jet, have not fully strengthened, reducing moisture transport towards the Indian west coast. As a result, cloud formation and sustained rainfall over Maharashtra have been limited.
Another major factor is the repeated northward shift of the monsoon trough, a low-pressure belt that guides rainfall systems across India.
When this trough moves towards the Himalayan foothills, rainfall tends to concentrate over northwest India, leaving central and western regions relatively dry. This year, such a shift has occurred frequently, contributing to the rainfall imbalance between Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
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Dry air suppressing rainfall in central India
Meteorologists also point to the intrusion of dry mid-level air over central India, which acts as a barrier to cloud development. Even when surface moisture is present, dry air in the upper atmosphere prevents thunderstorms from intensifying.
Satellite data has repeatedly shown cloud gaps over Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, while active rain systems remain concentrated further north.
The uneven rainfall pattern carries significant implications for agriculture and water management. Maharashtra, a key producer of sugarcane, cotton and soybean, depends heavily on timely monsoon rains for sowing and soil moisture.
Delayed rainfall can affect crop cycles and increase irrigation dependence, while urban centres like Mumbai are already monitoring water levels amid a weak start to the season.
In contrast, excess rainfall in Rajasthan, though beneficial in parts, can also pose risks such as local flooding in areas with limited drainage systems.
A sign of shifting monsoon behaviour?
While climate scientists caution against linking a single season directly to climate change, they acknowledge that rainfall variability is increasing.
India has seen growing instances of uneven monsoon distribution, with intense rainfall events in some regions and prolonged dry spells in others.
The current contrast between a wet Rajasthan and a dry Maharashtra may therefore reflect a broader shift towards a more erratic and less predictable monsoon system.
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