A developing low-pressure system over the southeast Bay of Bengal has now intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area and is expected to strengthen further into a depression by Monday, according to preliminary assessments.
Forecasting models indicate that the system may move in a north-westerly direction over the next 48 hours and could potentially turn into a full-fledged cyclone as it approaches the southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining South Andaman Sea, though its final track and exact point of landfall currently remain uncertain.
Meteorological models show the weather system consolidating near the South Andaman Sea by November 25. Weather scientist Sandeep Patnaik suggested that favourable conditions across the Malacca Strait and the southeast Bay of Bengal may allow the system to cross the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase and gain significant strength.
“The system may show signs of intensification as strong wind currents are blowing in from the Pacific Ocean, with the wide surface area of the sea making conditions conducive. The cold winds have receded, and thus, this system has strong chances of intensifying further,” he explained.
Patnaik noted that strong wind inflow from the Pacific Ocean, combined with a wide sea surface area and the absence of cold wind intrusion, makes further intensification highly likely. He projected the system may last from November 21 to December 2 or 3, with the period between November 26 and 30 being particularly critical for strengthening over the south-western Bay of Bengal, near the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts.
While the exact movement of the potential cyclone has not been confirmed, models indicate a sharp increase in wind speed over the sea. From the evening of November 25, winds over the southeast Bay of Bengal may reach 50-60 km/h, increasing to 60-70 km/h (with gusts up to 80 km/h) on November 26, and potentially reaching 100 km/h by the morning of November 27.
Despite these projections, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not yet issued an official bulletin on the cyclone's final track or likely landfall. Patnaik suggested the system may impact Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and its effects could extend to Odisha, especially if two existing circulations merge over the Andaman Sea.
Odisha’s Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari confirmed that the system is currently around 1,000 km from the mainland, stressing that the state is on high alert. He stated that the administration is prepared to mitigate the impact if the intensifying system shifts towards Odisha’s coastline.
"Two low-pressure systems have formed, with another circulation over the Andaman Sea. There's a possibility that both these systems will combine and move westwards towards the coast…To mitigate any impact on the state, the government is prepared, and all departments are on alert," the Minister confirmed.
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