The southwest monsoon made its onset over Kerala on Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced, marking the official beginning of the country's crucial June-to-September monsoon season.
The monsoon generally reaches Kerala around June 1 each year, serving as the traditional start of the southwest monsoon across India. In a statement, the IMD said, “The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of the Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal today, June 4, 2026.”
Earlier, the weather department had forecast that the monsoon would arrive over Kerala by May 26. However, the onset was delayed and eventually occurred more than a week later than initially predicted. The announcement comes shortly after the IMD revised its seasonal rainfall outlook, projecting that this year’s monsoon rainfall is likely to remain below normal.
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According to the department, rainfall across the country during the monsoon season is expected to be around 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA is a benchmark used by meteorologists and refers to the average rainfall recorded over a specific region during a defined period, such as a month or season, calculated using data collected over a long duration, typically 30 to 50 years.
Based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for seasonal rainfall across India stands at 87 centimetres. The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall as “deficient” when it falls below 90 per cent of the LPA. One of the factors cited for the expectation of below-normal rainfall this year is the possible development of El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent.
At present, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually transitioning towards an El Niño phase over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The IMD has indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to remain weak during June but could strengthen significantly as the season progresses, potentially becoming moderate to strong by September.
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