Assam's Goalpara district witnessed an extraordinary weather event on 24 September 2024—a rare tornado that lasted 10 to 15 minutes.
While the phenomenon caused no significant damage or casualties due to its occurrence in a sparsely populated area, it has prompted experts to question the region’s growing vulnerability to extreme weather events.
An article titled “An Unusual Tornado Strikes Again in Assam: Is It Linked to Climate Change?” published in Current Science, delves into the reasons behind this unprecedented occurrence.
Written by a team of researchers—Kimlina Gogoi, Santanu Baruah, Nandita Dutta, Timangshu Chetia, and Alan L. Kafka—the study points to unusual monsoon fluctuations, rising temperatures, and increased atmospheric moisture as primary contributors.
Unique climatic vulnerabilities
The Shillong Plateau typically shields Assam from such phenomena, making the tornado an anomaly.
The authors explain, “Climate models suggest that global warming may elevate atmospheric instability, potentially heightening tornado risks, though the connection remains complex.”
Tornadoes form when warm, moist air ascends into cooler layers, coupled with wind shear—changes in wind speed and direction—creating rotation.
Assam has a history of rare tornadoes, with previous instances recorded in 1963 and 2022.
The 1963 tornado originated in West Bengal before reaching Goalpara, while the most recent, the Barpeta tornado, occurred on 7 May 2022.
Monsoon fluctuations and human impact
The researchers attribute the 2024 tornado to unusual southwest monsoon fluctuations, with temperatures soaring to nearly 40°C during the late monsoon season—a stark deviation for Assam.
The study describes this as “a vivid warning sign of worsening weather vagaries in recent and upcoming times.”
Deforestation and industrial activities in the region have further exacerbated climatic instability.
The heat dome effect, compounded by reduced soil moisture and limited air circulation from the Bay of Bengal, created conditions ripe for the tornado’s formation.
Rainfall paradox in northeast India
While extreme weather events like the Goalpara tornado displays the impact of climate change, long-term studies reveal a paradox in the region’s climatic trends.
Northeast India (NEI) has experienced a decline in monsoon rainfall during the June–September period, with research from 1829 to 2016 showing a 3.6% decrease in rainfall for every degree of warming.
This contrasts with the broader trend of increasing rainfall across India, highlighting NEI’s unique climate challenges.
Government Response
Data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reveal that Goalpara’s temperatures dropped significantly during the tornado period, from 36.2°C on 23 September to 30°C by 25 September.
These fluctuations further highlight the climatic irregularities that enabled the tornado.
In response to such weather threats, the Assam government has partnered with the CSIR-North-East Institute of Science and Technology to install weather data stations across all districts.
These will enhance disaster preparedness, localised weather monitoring, and agricultural resilience.
The Current Science article concludes, “While the link between tornadoes and climate change is still under scientific investigation, events like this underscore the importance of robust early warning systems and proactive adaptation strategies to safeguard lives and livelihoods in the face of increasing climate variability.”
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