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July 12, 2026, 12:37 PM - 6 min read
When things feel uncertain or dangerous, people might reach for the visionary. Yet the very leaders we feel most drawn to in those moments – the boldly confident, the certain, the inspiring – may not always be well-suited to navigating such complexity, if they resist the open-minded, ambiguity-tolerant thinking that difficult problems require.
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July 10, 2026, 02:18 PM - 6 min read
Khamenei’s funeral was designed as a powerful political and diplomatic tool to project defiance and continued resistance against what Iran has called “global arrogance”. The government aimed to demonstrate its legitimacy, regional reach, public support and continued mobilising capacity despite the isolation efforts of its enemies. This mission seems to have been accomplished.
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July 2, 2026, 01:40 PM - 6 min read
The geopolitical challenge facing the country is growing, the pace of its spending response is arguably lacking and, of the partners able to help close the gap, Japan is the partner Wellington is most likely to prioritise. Allies are already signalling they expect more from New Zealand – and the cost of moving too slowly will be measured not only incapability, but in credibility.
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June 18, 2026, 12:53 PM - 7 min read
Whenever political leaders align themselves with combat sports, the significance lies less in the sport itself than in what the spectacle symbolises. A combat event staged as part of a national celebration transforms athletic competition into a ritual of collective identity and public values.
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June 15, 2026, 12:34 PM - 5 min read
The first half of 2026 has been full of risks. Wars, tariffs and shaky military alliances have changed everything. NATO has been undermined, spending priorities have changed, and trading relationships are not as solid as they used to be. Perhaps now is the time for the EU to grab hold of some important economic innovations and stop being so dependent on the US.
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May 31, 2026, 03:28 PM - 6 min read
For military juntas, the jihadist threat justifies continued rule and repression. For Russia, the region has become a showcase for anti-western influence and security partnerships in Africa. For western actors, jihadist expansion, migration concerns and fears of regional instability are used as reasons for security engagement despite repeated failures. The complex interactions between these actors have resulted in a continuous, strategic circle of violence, where civilians are the first victims.
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May 29, 2026, 03:19 PM - 6 min read
The recent influx of international leaders to China, including Trump and Putin, may be a reflection of growing uncertainty in the global order and made China appear more central to global diplomacy. But this visibility does not necessarily translate into effective global leadership.
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May 25, 2026, 02:23 PM - 6 min read
Europe is rapidly expanding military capabilities to address security threats but lacks a unified political strategy to manage the resulting geopolitical risks. This accelerated rearmament threatens to cause internal policy divisions and unintended international escalations across the continent.
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May 22, 2026, 12:47 PM - 6 min read
China is not playing triangular diplomacy in the classic sense. It is not trying to pit Washington and Moscow against each other. Instead, it is positioning itself as the system’s centre: the place where major-power diplomacy must pass, even if the outcomes are uncertain.
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May 19, 2026, 04:51 PM - 6 min read
The Caspian Sea faces an uncertain future. Its north-south Russia-Iran strategic and military axis is increasingly contested by their adversaries. Its east-west trade and energy role, meanwhile, holds the potential to rebalance regional power dynamics towards economic connectivity, rather than conflict.
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April 29, 2026, 01:47 PM - 7 min read
The global balance of power has shifted. The global south has both demography and economy on its side. The era of a Western-dominated world order is over. This is obvious, but it will take some time to sink in across the West.
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April 16, 2026, 03:07 PM - 5 min read
When one of the host nations happens to be the US government, led by the Trump administration, controversies are a given. But FIFA’s close brush with geopolitical drama could be compromising not just the platform but the sporting spirit as well.
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