The Congress appears to be set for a strong comeback in Haryana, with an exclusive News Arena India exit poll suggesting the party could secure between 45 to 53 seats in the 90-member Assembly. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is the second runner-up with 29-37 seats.
The Independents could get anything between four to six seats.
Overall Seat Projection:
Congress’s success seems largely driven by a robust showing in rural areas and Jat-dominated constituencies, where it is expected to win 22 out of 38 seats.
A good performance in the Jat-dominated regions is expected to determine the final outcome of the elections.
According to exit polls, the overall seat projection shows the Congress leading with 45-53 seats.
The Indian National Lok Dal has been given the thumbs down and is expected to get nothing more than 0-2 seats.
Party-wise Analysis:
Congress is coming out to be the strongest performer, expected to win 45-53 seats.
The party is confirmed to win 14 out of 30 current seats.
- Strong in rural areas and Jat-dominated constituencies
- Winning 22 out of 38 Jat-dominated seats
- Performing well in reserved seats (9 out of 17)
BJP:
- Second strongest, expected to win 29-37 seats
- Confirmed winning in 15 out of 41 current seats
- Strong in urban areas like Gurugram, Faridabad, and Karnal
- Performing well in Ahir-dominated seats (6 out of 9)
INLD (Indian National Lok Dal):
- Poor performance, expected to win 0-2 seats
- May lose its Ellenabad seat
- In close contest in Rania
Independents:
- Expected to win 4-6 seats
- Some notable wins predicted (e.g., Ganaur, Hisar, Bahadurgarh)
3. Key Observations:
- A high number of close contests (13 seats) could swing results
- JJP (Jannayak Janta Party) expected to get 0 seats
- Dushyant Chautala (JJP leader) expected to get below 8% vote share
- Out of 10 contesting ministers, only 2 are confirmed winning, 6 losing, and 2 in
close contests
- Congress performing strongly in Jat-dominated and reserved seats
- BJP strong in urban areas and Ahir-dominated seats
4. Regional Patterns:
- Congress strong in Sirsa, Fatehabad, and Rohtak regions
- BJP strong in Karnal, Panipat, and parts of Gurugram and Faridabad
- Independents expected to win in scattered constituencies
5. Notable Contests:
- Ambala Cantt: Close contest between BJP and Independent (Congress not
in contest)
- Adampur: Close contest between Bhavya Bishnoi (BJP) and Congress candidate
- Hisar: Savitri Jindal (Independent) expected to win
6. Potential Impacts:
- The outcome of close contests could significantly affect the final tally
- Performance in Jat-dominated seats could be crucial for overall results
- Independent winners might play a crucial role in government formation if results
are close.
Exit polls suggest a competitive election with Congress having an edge, but with several close contests that could impact the final outcome. The performance in key demographic areas (like Jat-dominated seats) and urban vs rural divide seem to be important factors in this election.
As Haryana awaits the official results on October 8, this exit poll paints a picture of a state divided along rural-urban and caste lines, with both major parties showing strengths in different areas.
The picture is not very clear and things will remain uncertain until the final votes are tallied and the shape of Haryana's next government becomes clear.
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