The fragile global legal framework for nuclear weapons control faces more setbacks in 2026, with the overall structure witnessing a collapse. The first half of 2026 will witness two important events: the expiration of the US-Russia New START nuclear treaty on February 5, followed by the New York Review Conference (RevCon) of the treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the cornerstone of global nuclear security frameworks.
The RevCon, held every four to five years, aims to sustain the NPT. However, the previous two conferences ended without a final consensus on the agreement among 190 nations.
Alexandra Bell, head of the US-based global security non-profit Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said, "I think this is going to be a difficult RevCon. In terms of the current state and near-term prospects of the arms control architecture, things are bleak.”
The tensions over nuclear weapons have surged worldwide, amid events like US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites in June and Russia testing its new Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile in October, followed by US President Donald Trump's announcement on resuming nuclear testing.
Experts have warned that the global arms control architecture is crumbling due to increased hostilities among nations worldwide.
Recent conflicts, such as the brief India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 (Operation Sindoor), ongoing tensions over Taiwan, the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, and the possible Iran-Israel confrontation, illustrate risks where nuclear weapons could factor in.
These are live examples of how nuclear war or usage of the catastrophic weapons could come into play if a conflict breaks out, which is, by all means, a possible scenario going forward.
Russia remains determined to capture and seize more territory in Ukraine, and Iran has possibly scaled up its nuclear weapons procurement to deter Israel and the US.
India has said Operation Sindoor has not yet ended, while a Taiwan invasion and a possible conflict involving China and India are certain realities that are hovering above the world.
China has so far refused to engage in any talks involving denuclearisation and has strongly warned that the capabilities of Beijing are beyond what the world could comprehend.
Chinese experts are often quoted as saying, ‘China will never use its nuclear weapons and will make sure no one in the world gets to use theirs as well.’
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