In a one-of-a-kind study commissioned by the Finnish government titled “Report on the Future”, four possible scenarios for the state of the world in 2045.
The study predicts the role of tech giants and the collapse of the old alliance, and war becoming the new normal. Finland published a 171-page “government report on the future”, which details its forecasts for the world over the next two decades.
The longitudinal analysis has been conducted since 1993 and is designed to serve as a strategic tool for Finnish lawmakers and ministers in their decision-making processes. This year’s edition looks ahead to 2045, and outlines four scenarios that are considered the most likely, depending on the actions governments take in the next few years.
According to the study, the rosiest of the four, this scenario envisions a world defined by peaceful cooperation on pretty much all levels – across borders and between governments and NGOs. “The rules-based international order will be strengthened and both societal and global problems will be successfully resolved,” the study noted.
It envisions a scenario with a “green economy fairly spreading across the world, with the EU becoming a more powerful political force, and sustainable and human-centred use of technology will have also helped stimulate economic growth.”
It sees the United States as less polarised, with political parties having more common ground to set aside their differences towards a unified common goal. In China, the government is seen to ease its control of society, and in Russia, democracy will make a comeback as federal and regional institutions will be strengthened.
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It also sees a strong hold of the global tech giants on the world, such as Amazon and Nvidia, setting the future agenda. The study warns that if these mega-tech companies are let loose, they will not only “dominate and take control but also destroy the governments and democracies around the world.”
China is predicted to be “self-sufficient in almost all critical technology and production sectors”, the US is seen as losing some of its edge, and Russia is forecast to have no tech giants of its own. The study also sees more confrontations between the global alliances over natural resources, minerals, tech, and geopolitical influence.
The EU is described as a “fortress under attack”, China as “unpredictable”, the US as powerful, and Russia as “Putinist” and aggressive. The worst-case scenario describes a world mired in chaos, internal conflicts and rampant authoritarianism, in which global warming has become irreversible.
The US is living its “worst nightmare”, having lost its global pre-eminence and turned “inwards”. China, meanwhile, is “paralysed” by its many internal conflicts, and Russia has gone full-blown fascist. Lastly, the study sees a potential rise of the African continent to be the next economic superpower. If the military wars and terrorism do not affect it too much.
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