As 2025 draws to a close, the war between Russia and Ukraine still wages on amid diplomatic deadlocks and entrenched stalemates on a closely contested battleground, and propaganda from both sides.
Russia claims to have captured over 6,300 square kilometres of Ukraine, a figure that has drawn strong scepticism from the military, defence specialists, and institutions that study the impact of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s territorial claims, stretching from Kharkiv to Donetsk, are possibly also aimed at boosting the morale of the Russian troops facing stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces.
Similarly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tried to boost the morale of his troops by visiting the battlelines close to the Russian positions, though it is no secret that Ukraine is massively outnumbered and technologically at a disadvantage against the Russian forces.
While both sides have claimed significant gains or the infliction of a substantial number of casualties on each other, analysis points to a contrasting picture.
Institute for the Study of War, widely known for its credible and potent analysis of the battlefield realities around the world, has contradicted claims from both Russia and Ukraine, especially the territorial claims.
Putin’s claim over several hotspots falls short, as Russian control in areas like Lyman and Kostiantynivka barely exceeds single-figure percentages.
Also read: Will Russia and Ukraine finally choose peace?
At the same time, Zelenskyy’s claims of pushing back Russian forces from Donbas, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions have also proved inaccurate.
As the year draws to a close, Russian forces remain in control of several Ukrainian positions held by Kyiv forces at the start of the year.
According to verified figures, both sides have lost more than 100,000 men, with twice that number injured in the war in 2025 alone.
Mediation efforts championed by US President Donald Trump have not yet yielded any positive outcome despite his administration’s best efforts.
Talks in Istanbul, followed by the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin, Zelenskyy-Trump meeting at the White House, and the recent trilateral talks in Florida have all failed so far.
Despite sidelining the EU from the talks or settlement plans, the European Union has still pushed Ukraine’s agenda, while rallying behind the Zelenskyy regime with the aid of more than $100 million approved this past week.
In 2025, Russia launched thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles on Ukraine. Kyiv responded with its own strikes on airbases, oil rigs, and even a Mediterranean tanker.
Verified figures suggest Moscow seized 4,984 square kilometres, instead of 6,300 claimed.
With ongoing negotiations witnessing a persistent stalemate and back-and-forth of unrealistic demands from both sides, the war in Ukraine is likely to extend into the next year, with the risk of further escalation in 2026.
By Waseem Ahmad Ganie
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