The Union government on Thursday indicated that the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) could be withdrawn from almost the entire Northeast by next year, citing significant improvements in the security situation and expanding peace accords across the region.
The assessment came alongside the signing of a tripartite memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the Centre and the governments of Assam and Nagaland to restart mineral oil exploration in the disputed border belt, which had remained stalled for more than three decades due to jurisdictional and security concerns.
According to the Centre, the shrinking areas under AFSPA reflect a broader decline in insurgency-related violence and growing stability in several Northeastern states. The law, which grants special powers to armed forces in “disturbed areas,” is now expected to remain applicable only in a limited number of pockets across the region.
A senior Union minister said the government was confident that AFSPA would be removed from “one or two states” in the Northeast by next year, underlining what he described as a steady transition towards normalcy.
The MoU on oil and mineral exploration in the Disputed Area Belt is expected to revive long-pending extraction activities in a resource-rich zone along the Assam-Nagaland border. Officials said the agreement could unlock significant reserves of oil, natural gas and other minerals that have remained untapped due to prolonged disputes and lack of consensus between the two states.
Also read: Assam, Nagaland sign oil and gas exploration pact in border areas
The Centre said production potential in the region could increase substantially once exploration resumes, with preliminary estimates suggesting a sharp rise from current output levels. The field potential has also been described as economically significant, with long-term benefits for both states.
The government also highlighted that a series of peace accords signed since 2019 with various groups and stakeholders have contributed to a marked reduction in violent incidents in the Northeast. Officials estimate that insurgency-related incidents have declined by nearly 80 per cent over the past few years.
The initiative is being projected as part of the broader push for cooperative federalism, aimed at resolving long-standing inter-state disputes while promoting economic development in strategically important regions.
The Centre maintained that improved security conditions and renewed inter-state cooperation are key factors enabling the gradual rollback of AFSPA from the Northeast, marking a shift towards sustained development and investment-led growth.
The announcement is expected to be followed by detailed security reviews in remaining sensitive districts before formal notifications on AFSPA withdrawal are issued in phases. Officials said the process will be contingent on ground assessments, coordination between state administrations and continued monitoring of law and order situations in affected areas.
Final approval will depend on periodic reviews conducted by the central security apparatus over the coming months and years ahead respectively.
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