The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the onset of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and warned that the climate phenomenon is likely to strengthen during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
In its June 2026 ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin, the IMD said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific had crossed the threshold required for El Nino conditions.
The weather agency noted that atmospheric indicators had also responded to the ocean warming, confirming that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system had entered an El Nino phase.
Monsoon impact concerns
The IMD said forecasts generated by the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System indicate that El Nino is expected to intensify further as the monsoon progresses.
According to the bulletin, the latest three-month average Nino 3.4 index, a key measure of El Nino, has risen above 0.5 degrees Celsius, meeting the criteria for the phenomenon's official onset.
Also read: Emerging El Nino may impact farms, power grids across India
The agency also pointed to strong positive temperature anomalies beneath the Pacific Ocean surface, suggesting that warmer waters will continue to rise and reinforce El Nino in the coming months.
Forecast models indicate that positive sea surface temperature anomalies will persist during June-August and expand across the central and eastern Pacific from July onwards, potentially leading to moderate to strong El Nino conditions through much of the monsoon season.
What it means for India
El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has historically been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, prolonged dry spells and, in some years, drought conditions in India.
However, the IMD stressed that El Nino is not the only factor influencing the monsoon. It noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail and are expected to continue through the season.
A neutral IOD is unlikely to either significantly amplify or offset El Nino's effects.
Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency, which formally declared the onset of El Nino on June 11, suggested that a positive IOD could emerge around July, potentially helping to reduce some of the adverse impacts on India's rainfall.
The IMD said it would continue monitoring developments closely and issue regular updates as the monsoon season advances.
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