The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is inching closer to a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha amid a fresh wave of political churn triggered by a Trinamool Congress rebellion, even as it remains significantly short of the mark in the Lok Sabha despite expected gains from defecting MPs.
The numbers game in Parliament has been reshaped by resignations and shifting allegiances, with the ruling coalition seeking the strength required to push through constitutional amendment bills that demand a two-thirds majority in both Houses.
In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA currently has 148 members and is expected to gain three additional seats in the ongoing electoral cycle, including contests in Jharkhand and Mizoram where independent seats are in play. With the Trinamool Congress facing internal dissent, three of its MPs have resigned, paving the way for the NDA to secure all three West Bengal seats in the subsequent bypolls. This would take the ruling alliance’s tally to around 154 in the Upper House, leaving it just nine short of the two-thirds mark.
Party sources indicated that if further resignations from the Trinamool Congress materialise, the NDA’s strength in the Rajya Sabha could rise to 163, a figure that would effectively place it in a position to clear all constitutional amendment legislation without reliance on Opposition support. However, the arithmetic remains fluid, with scheduled retirements of 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh later in the year expected to alter the balance once again, potentially offering gains to the Samajwadi Party in the state assembly-driven elections.
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The Opposition INDIA bloc currently holds 64 seats, following the exit of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam with eight MPs and the Aam Aadmi Party with three MPs distancing themselves from the grouping. Smaller regional players, including the YSR Congress Party with seven members and the Biju Janata Dal with six, along with the MDMK, continue to hold the balance and may align variably on key votes.
In the Lok Sabha, however, the NDA remains far from a two-thirds majority, which stands at 363 seats. Even with the anticipated support of around 20 Trinamool Congress MPs forming a separate group, the alliance’s strength is projected to rise only to about 213, keeping it well below the constitutional threshold.
The breakaway MPs are expected to meet Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Monday to formally communicate their separation from the Trinamool Congress, a move that could further consolidate the NDA’s position in the lower House.
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