arvind-kejriwal-down-indeed-certainly-not-out

Politics is like a game of “snakes and ladders”. At times one jumps several steps and next time one falls by several more steps. It is a continuous game. When the Aam Aadmi Party supremo and former Delhi Chief Minister bragged with confidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will need to get another birth to win Delhi, he forgot the game of “snakes and ladders” that he was playing. Probably because he had never been stuck by a snake in his 12 years of being in the game.

 

And when he lost Delhi badly, people started writing his political obituary. Kejriwal is down indeed, but he certainly is not out. He has a long political innings to play. He has the distinction of turning a newly formed AAP into a “national party” within a decade. Till February 8 last, the AAP was the only regional party having governments in two states. AAP owes much to its charismatic leader who redefined politics, political narrative and political discourse.

 

Whether one likes it or not and whether it is in the country’s economic interests or not, Kejriwal has institutionalised the “culture of freebies”. He did not restrict it to the poor and the downtrodden alone, but also extended it to the middle classes. Three hundred units of free electricity every month in Punjab, has benefitted the middle classes as much as the downtrodden and the economically marginalised sections.

 

So much so, not only have other political parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress copied the idea, they have been repeatedly assuring the people that the freebies will not be withdrawn if they form the government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the union Home Minister Amit Shah during the Delhi assembly elections would repeatedly assure the people there that if the BJP formed the government, the freebies would continue.

 

But the dividends of the freebies come with a definite “expiry date”, which Kejriwal must have realised now. The Akali leadership in Punjab, particularly the popular and veteran leader and five-time Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal learnt it the hard way. Badal introduced free power to the agriculture sector in Punjab, which later turned out to be the bane for Punjab’s economy. But, it has immensely benefited the Punjab peasantry across all income groups and land holdings. Yet, it was the same peasantry that turned its back on Badal and his party, first in 2017 and then in 2022 that the party was reduced to just three seats in the Punjab assembly. Badal, his son Sukhbir Singh Badal and son-in-law, Adesh Pratap Singh Kairon, all lost the elections, from the peasantry dominated assembly segments.

 

Not only did the AAP lose badly in Delhi, even Kejriwal lost from his own New Delhi assembly seat, which he consecutively won in 2013, 2015 and 2020 with massive margins. This was despite the fact that the New Delhi assembly segment has a huge number of voters who immensely got various freebies of the AAP government.

 

The 2025 assembly election was actually a referendum on Kejriwal. He himself turned the election into a referendum on himself. After being released from jail on bail, the court imposed certain conditions on him which included that he cannot attend the Chief Minister’s office and nor could he sign any files. This made his position untenable. He resigned and “deputed” Atishi as the Chief Minister, “temporarily”.

 

Also read: With Delhi in its grip, Punjab may not be very far for BJP

 

He announced then, since the court had given him bail and a case was pending against him, he would be going to the people’s court. He said, if the people of Delhi thought he was honest, they would make him and his party win, and only then would he reoccupy the Chief Minister’s chair. He was confident about his party’s and his own victory. He made it clear during a television interview, when asked, who will become the Chief Minister if the AAP won, saying, he had gone to the people’s court and in the meanwhile Atishi’s was a “temporary” arrangement.

 

Both Kejriwal and his party lost the elections, which implies, from his own declaration made ahead of the elections, that he has not been given clean chit by the people of Delhi. But, he will always have another chance as he has a long way to go in politics. He is only 56 and already a three-time Chief Minister of Delhi. Public memory is too short even in the age of visual evidence that everyone carries in a smartphone.

 

Although the AAP lost elections, it still retained 43.6 percent vote share in Delhi, which is quite substantial. The BJP, which swept the elections got 47.2 percent vote share, just 3.6 percent more than the AAP in cumulative terms. Actually AAP vote share shot up because of massive victory margins in a few constituencies.

 

The AAP still has a government in Punjab, where elections are due after two years. Although there also it is faced with strong anti-incumbency, as was reflected during the parliamentary elections when it won just three of the thirteen seats, it still has time to make the necessary corrections and right amends to remain in reckoning in 2027.

 

The road ahead is definitely tough for Kejriwal and his party. The Congress in Punjab has already started asserting itself with a lot of confident in the hope that it, right now, remains the only alternative to the AAP. Punjab does not have a great record of re-electing the incumbent governments. During the last three years, the AAP has not been able to create the right party infrastructure, in Punjab, as compared to the traditional parties like the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP. But the party does have time and the government in place to build up the party to stay in the fight. In a four or, at least three-cornered contest, it will be an equal stakeholder. 

 

The first and the foremost job for Kejriwal now is to secure Punjab for 2027. It is a long order. Since he has enough time, as there are no immediate elections where his party has any serious stakes, he can spend time for Punjab to retain its base and prevent its further erosion. Delhi can wait.

 

The task is not simple. Building afresh from the base is much easier than rebuilding over the ruins particularly when you are trying to rebuild over your own ruins. When Kejriwal started the AAP in 2009, it did not have any baggage. It only offered hope and the party caught the imagination of the people of Delhi and later, Punjab also.

 

But, with governments come lots of disappointments, disillusionments, failed promises and at times grave mistakes, deliberate or involuntary. Then there are also corruption charges that the party has to confront and counter. All of these were not there when the AAP began afresh. Now it is seen and counted like any other political party in the “business of politics”.

 

Last but not the least, Kejriwal has a lot of erstwhile colleagues, friends and a mentor Anna Hazare, who left him or he left them and are his stringent critics now. They include besides Hazare, Kumar Vishwas, Yoginder Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, Ashutosh and many others, who are all there to seek vengeance against him.

 

The challenge definitely is serious for Kejriwal. He is down indeed, but he is certainly not out yet. It will be too early to write his political obituary. In all likelihood, he will bounce back, as he possesses all the attributes towards that end. His main challenge will be to hold the party together, when there is no ideological glue, declining influence after have lost Delhi and powerful challengers and political opponents.