bjp-banks-on-division-of-votes-in-punjab

While the opposition, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) parties could somehow manage to field a single candidate against the Bharatiya Janata Party or its allies in most of the constituencies across the country, particularly the north, it could not do so in the politically volatile state of Punjab. 

With ‘four and five cornered’ contests in Punjab’s 13 parliamentary constituencies, the state is going to be the most difficult to predict for the 2024 General Elections. 

 

The Bharatiya Janata Party, so far, has remained just a marginal player in Punjab, both in terms of the legislative assembly as well as the parliament because of its longtime alliance, now broken, with the Shiromani Akali Dal. 

Of the 13 parliamentary constituencies, it only contested three and of the 117 assembly segments, it used to contest just 23, leaving the entire state and its political space open for its ally.

 

However, after the farmers in the state launched a stir against the BJP government at the centre over three farm laws, which they thought were against their interests, the Akali Dal parted ways with the BJP. The farming Jatt Sikh community in Punjab has traditionally been with the Akali Dal.

 

The party could not afford to alienate and antagonise this strong vote bank at a time when it was fighting for survival and to retain this vote bank for various other reasons. Even parting ways with the BJP could not help the Akalis regain that vote bank as there are other reasons also. 

 

The BJP contested on its own for the first time in about three decades, in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections, and got 6.6 per cent of the total votes polled and won two seats. The Akali Dal polled 18.4 per cent votes and won three seats. The Akalis had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. Had they contested together, the Akali-BJP alliance would have won 12 seats more and would have been close to winning in about 12 more constituencies where the margin of defeat for either of the party candidates was around 2000 votes only.

 

In the two subsequent parliamentary by-elections of Sangrur, necessitated by the resignation of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann in 2022 and the Jalandhar bypoll necessitated by the death of Congress candidate Chaudhary Santokh during Bharat Jodo Yatra, the BJP and the Akali Dal remained close to each other in terms of votes. 


In Sangrur, where it was a five-cornered contest, the BJP was ahead of the Akali Dal, while in the four-cornered Jalandhar bypoll, the Akalis were ahead of the BJP. The Akalis had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party for the Jalandhar bypoll as they had during the assembly elections. 

 

Now again, Punjab is having a four and five-cornered contest in the thirteen seats.

In constituencies like Ludhiana, Patiala, Fateharh Sahib, Amritsar, Gurdaspur and Ferozepur it is going to be a four-cornered contest between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP. In Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, Khadoor Sahib, Faridkot, Bahtinda, Sangrur and Anandpur Sahib it is going to be a five-cornered contest with BSP being the fifth significant player in Jalandhar, Anandhpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur and the radicals likely to be impactful in Khadoor Sahib, where the jailed preacher Amritpal is considered to be a favourite, Bathinda, Sangrur and Faridkot. 

 

It is the vertical division of votes between four and five candidates that the BJP is banking upon this time. Certain developments like the abrogation of Article 370, the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and some local Punjab issues have helped the BJP to consolidate its position among a majority of the Hindu votes.

 

It is not because of any special efforts by the BJP in Punjab but for other reasons. Hindus are a minority in Punjab and, thus more inclined towards identity politics, like the other communities in the state.

 

While it is massively dependent on the Hindu votes, the party has however been trying to make inroads among other communities, including the farming Jatt Sikh community, which is perceived to be hostile towards the party owing to three farm laws, which have already been withdrawn.

 

Besides, the BJP is trying to impress the electorate that with the likelihood of a BJP or a BJP-led government at the centre again, it will be in the interest of the state to go along with the party that is in power in the centre.

 

There is a feeling in a large section of people that only a cooperative and supportive government at the centre can bail Punjab out of its multiple crises, particularly the massive debt of about 3.74 lakh crores that is draining its economy.

 

The BJP is expected to make an impactful performance in constituencies like Ludhiana, Patiala, Anandpur Sahib, Jalandhar, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur, where it might even spring some surprises.

 

The party’s performance in Amritsar, Sangrur and Ferozepur will also be watched keenly. In Faridkot, although a predominantly rural constituency with very little scope, its candidate and popular Sufi singer Hans Raj Hans is making waves through his unique style of campaigning, by refusing to cow down to the pressure and intimidation of some activists who are trying to prevent the BJP candidates from campaigning. 

 

While it is difficult to predict how far the BJP can translate its support into actual votes and seats in Punjab, the party is going to have a much higher vote share this time as compared to the past assembly and parliamentary elections. It is set to come out of the margins into the mainstream.