Nitish Kumar has been sworn in as the Chief Minister of Bihar for a record number of 10 times. Although he is not the longest serving Chief Minister in India, he remains the one who has taken oath maximum number of times so far. But he has served as the Chief Minister of Bihar for about 20 years since 2005, barring a brief interregnum of about nine months from May 2014 to February 2015. That is no ordinary feat either.
While the phenomenal success of the National Democratic Alliance in the recently concluded Bihar assembly elections is a joint effort, more credit goes to Nitish for multiple reasons. Not only has Nitish maintained a neat and clean image for this entire period, he has made himself acceptable to all sections of the society irrespective of the caste, creed, colour or community. BJP on its own, probably may not have been able to beat the Mahagathbandhan with strong backing of the Muslim-Yadav alliance.
Although the overwhelming majority of the Muslim and Yadav voters continued to vote for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nitish did help the NDA to gain about 5 per cent Muslim and 8 per cent Yadav votes. Nitish’s overall acceptability among all sections of the society has been the greatest asset for the NDA so far. The BJP has not been able to build up a tall leader in Bihar so far. That is also probably because of Nitish.
Nitish, over a period has cultivated an image of ‘sushasan babu’ (man of good governance). He has not been hit by any corruption charges despite being at the helm for 20 years that too in a state like Bihar. Nor have any of his family members got involved in any controversy. The law and order has mostly remained under control. Yes, there have been incidents of violence and killings, but they are far fewer as compared to what used to happen during the RJD rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Moreover, there has been no official patronage to criminals and gangsters like Shahabudin.
The NDA leadership, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah played their cards very well. While presenting and projecting Nitish as the man of good governance who brought law and order under control, at the same time they reminded people of the ‘bad old days’ under Lalu’s rule when Bihar was identified as ‘jungleraj’, with criminals ruling the roost. Coupled with that was a number of corruption cases against Lalu and some of his family members in which he has been convicted and has served jail terms as well.
No doubt the BJP’s own experiment and model has worked and succeeded so well across most parts of the country, it can still take some lessons from the Bihar model, particularly in the context of West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee is holding the forte for the last 15 years in a row. It goes without saying that had it not been for Nitish, the results may not have been like they turned out to be in Bihar against a massive onslaught from the Mahagathbandhan.
Bihar has everything for the BJP to stand on its own, still it has not been able to. The state is more or less like Uttar Pradesh in terms of the Muslim and OBC/ Yadav population. Still the BJP has not reached anywhere near to in Bihar, what it has achieved in Uttar Pradesh. This is despite the fact that the Yadav strongman Lalu Prasad is in the autumn of his political career and has suffered so many legal and political setbacks.
As is obvious and given the health condition of Nitish Kumar, the BJP will have to make immediate succession plans. Although it has more MLAs than the JDU, the difference is not that much. While the BJP won 89, the JDU won 85 seats. The issue is whether the JDU can hold on to Nitish’s legacy once he takes a sabbatical and whether, in that case, the BJP will be able to fill the “vacuum”.
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There is no second-generation leadership in the JDU and even if there was any, it will be practically impossible for anyone to step into Nitish’s shoes. Over a period, Nitish’s persona has grown so big that nobody in Bihar, whether in his own party or in the BJP comes close to him in stature.
The BJP has created and built up the next generation of leaders in every state by replacing the old guard, whether in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh or Rajasthan. It did not face any problem there. But in Bihar the situation is different. It will have to start finding Nitish’s successor as early as possible, without offending or making him feel insecure.
The NDA remains comfortably saddled in Bihar. The victory has come as a big boost for the alliance ahead of the four crucial state elections scheduled next year in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Assam. BJP does not have many stakes in the two southern states, but its stakes are quite high in the two crucial and important eastern states of Assam and Bengal.
While in Assam the BJP will fight to defend its turf, in Bengal it is pitched against an aggressive Mamata Banerjee, who has so far proved unshakable for the saffron party and has been winning continuously since 2010.
Going by Bihar where the NDA/ BJP overcame 20-year anti-incumbency, its job in neighbouring Bengal is more challenging. More so, in Bengal the BJP does not have anyone like Nitish Kumar, moderate on a middle path acceptable to all.
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