West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is involved in a “do or die” battle against the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has made the final push to wrest the state from her powerful grip. Deep in south, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin is also placed in a tough contest, fighting strong anti-incumbency, although his principal opponent the AIADMK, which is aligned with the BJP, is not considered a strong favourite. Popular film star-turned-politician Vijay has turned the contest triangular.
Mamata and Stalin are emerging as symbols of resistance against a “rampaging BJP”, which has been winning state after state. The BJP is in power at the Centre for the third consecutive term. Its strength came down to 240 from 303, as Bengal under Mamata and Tamil Nadu under Stalin resisted the saffron/ NDA wave that has been sweeping across India, barring a few states in the South.
The Congress does not have any stakes in any of these two states. It is just a marginal force in Tamil Nadu, while in West Bengal it is virtually non-existent. In Tamil Nadu, it is contesting in alliance with the DMK. However, if the alliance wins, the Congress will not be part of the government. That is the condition. Stalin does not want to share power with the Congress. The Congress has accepted these terms, which are not at all respectable, only because it sees a challenger to the BJP in Stalin.
In Bengal, the Congress is contesting from all assembly segments. The party has taken a position against the Trinamool Congress, but it actually wants the TMC to win against the BJP, which is the main challenger to Mamata. That way the party has deliberately conceded the entire space to the two parties, the TMC in Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu.
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However, in Kerala, it has taken a strong position against the Left Front government led by Pinarayi Vijayan. The Congress leaders, right from Mallikarjun Kharge to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra have accused the Left Front of having a secret understanding with the BJP, which is quite unlikely given their extreme ideological differences. This is because, in Kerala, the Congress is the principal challenger to the Left Front government and is quite optimistic about winning. The Left Front has been in power there for 10 years now. The Congress sees a chance in Kerala amidst a lot of anti-incumbency.
The Congress trying to build up an “alliance of non-BJP” parties and leaders against the saffron party, reminds of similar attempts by the non-Congress parties and leaders in early 1980s, when the Congress was in a dominating position and Indira Gandhi had emerged as a very powerful Prime Minister, the same way Narendra Modi has in the modern days. Gandhi then commanded the same charisma that Modi does today. Like the BJP keeps saying, “Congress-mukt-Bharat” (an India without Congress), Gandhi also wanted the Congress rule all across the country. She would frequently dismiss non-Congress governments and even engineer defections.
In 1983, then Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah hosted a conclave of the non-Congress chief ministers and other leaders in Srinagar. They included Farooq, NT Rama Rao, Jyoti Basu and Ramakrishna Hegde, chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Karnataka respectively. Besides, senior opposition leaders like Parkash Singh Badal and Biju Patnaik also attended the conclave. The BJP had not been invited. But the BJP that time was just an inconsequential force with a very limited, rather restricted footprint, as compared to what it is today.
Indira Gandhi did not like it and took it as defiance against her authority at the Centre. Farooq lost the government within less than a year and was replaced by his own brother-in-law GM Shah, after 12 of Farooq’s MLAs defected from his party National Conference and aligned with the Congress. The defections were engineered at Gandhi’s behest. NT Rama Rao government was also de-stabilised but he fought back and became the chief minister once again.
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The non-Congress conclave that time had raised the issue of growing interference of the Centre into the affairs of the states, which they said was a threat to federalism, the same way the opposition parties are alleging today. Interestingly, while then it was the Congress, which was considered to be the main culprit, this time in a complete reversal of role, the Congress is now saying and doing exactly the opposite, taking up the role of, what it claims, “defending the Constitution and federalism.”
As long as there is a strong and assertive government at the Centre, like during Indira Gandhi’s days in 1970s and early 1980s and currently under Prime Minister Modi, there will always be certain grievances, more perceived than real. The same way the opposition parties then were crying about the alleged erosion of democracy and federalism under Gandhi, they are doing it now against Modi.
Mamata and Stalin fit best in this role, not as challengers but forces of resistance against the BJP’s sweeping and overriding dominance. They have limited stakes yet their voices get heard. The entire opposition ecosystem helps in magnifying their voices. In the process, the Congress is voluntarily cutting itself to size, while allowing more space to marginal players like Mamata and Stalin.
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