There is a strong sense of unease in Pakistan over India having taken a stand that is seen in support of the United States and Israel in the ongoing war with Iran. India actually has remained neutral. It has not joined ranks with Israel and the US in their war against Iran. The only thing India has not done is not condemned the US attack on Iran and killing of its supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
It obviously has been a very tough choice for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make. His critics may castigate him for having “abandoned” a long-time friend like Iran, but in diplomacy there comes a time when one has to take a clear position and when fence sitting does not pay off. In the current situation, PM Modi appears to have derived a better bargain by being seen on the side that is extensively being viewed as the “right side”. India’s tilt is towards the US and Israel.
Iran actually was not a “long-time” friend as some Opposition parties would like everyone to believe. Till the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran under the Shah was a strong ally of Pakistan along with the US. In fact, the Shah had helped Pakistan against India in the 1965 and 1971 wars.
Even post-revolution, the Islamic Iran was more inclined towards the Islamic Pakistan in the overall scheme of things than India. In fact, the then military dictator of Pakistan Gen Zia ul Haq followed Iran's Islamic regime code and copy book and implemented it in Pakistan. He was a great admirer of Ruhollah Khomeini, Khamenei’s predecessor and mentor.
Iran has only once supported India in the UNHRC in 1994. That was also at the last minute and not because of any long-standing policy. As mentioned earlier in these columns, since 2019 when the Parliament of India abrogated Article 370, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei criticised it. He also criticised the CAA using highly critical language that was like crossing the proverbial diplomatic redline.
Much against the breast beating by the Opposition, Modi has made the right choice for the country. There was no point in staying neutral. In fact, in current times it is neither advisable nor practical to remain neutral. India’s recent experience during Operation Sindoor was enough for the Prime Minister to exercise his discretion. Israel stood by India and India is standing by Israel. It is as simple.
Also read: Iran crisis: Modi, Sonia and India’s diplomatic tightrope
Interestingly, our Opposition parties seem to mirror Pakistan’s stance on India’s stand. Just two days after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Pakistan president Asif Zardari went on record to say India wants another war with Pakistan. There is serious unease over India’s closeness to Israel. Pakistan establishment, political and strategy analysts are viewing India’s proximity with Israel with suspicion and fear. A belief has started gaining ground in Pakistan that the country “will” be the next target after Iran and it will be India and Israel that will attack it.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Israel, just two days before Operation Epic Fury, as the US has named its war on Iran, has disturbed Pakistan’s security establishment. People in Pakistan have started believing that Prime Minister Modi was very much aware of the impending war against Iran and he had specially gone there to be briefed in advance about it. India not condemning the attack or condoling Khamenei’s death is seen in this context. The analysts in Pakistan have even suggested that India and Israel have reached a “defence pact”.
At the same time people in Pakistan are not trusting the US, particularly President Donald Trump, saying for him, his own or his own country’s interests come over and above everything. According to Pakistani media, people there do not see the US as a reliable ally, particularly when it comes to India. The Pakistan government is worried about India having received Israel’s help in gathering intelligence from deep inside Pakistan, which may help it in precision target hitting if war breaks out again.
India will obviously have to pay some price for this positioning. If India had taken a clearly neutral stand in the current conflict, Iran probably would have allowed passage to Indian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as it has done in the case of Russia and China. The country will have to bear the economic impact as this will lead to substantial inflation and may even disrupt the supply of oil and gas.
This is still a price worth paying for building up a reliable relationship with a country like Israel. The two countries have a lot in common to share, particularly the perennial threat of terrorism from neighbourhood. India can and should use Israel’s experience in tackling such threats and that is what has started worrying Pakistan. May be, for the right reasons.
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