Despite being the super power, the US has never won a war in recent times. It had to beat a retreat wherever it put its boots on ground, whether in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. Although it did not launch any ground attack in Iran, it followed its tradition of beating the retreat even from there.
When US President Donald Trump signed the truce at the Palace of Versailles in Paris on Thursday, it was not a document of victory, but only a “memorandum of understanding” and compromise. In an uneven war like the one between the US and Iran, any agreement or compromise would be considered a victory for the weaker side and defeat for the stronger one.
Despite repeated bravado and threats of bombing Iranian civilisation to annihilation, the US President wanted to get out of the war as it was costing the US much more than it had imagined. Besides, the US was also feeling the pinch as the global energy prices were escalating after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz that had contributed to rising inflation.
With the primaries approaching and Trump’s approval ratings going down, it was understandable that the US would want an early exit from the war. The level of Trump’s despair can be judged from the fact that he did not even care about Israel, at whose behest he had launched the attack on Iran.
It is not difficult to conclude who emerged victorious from the war. Iran no doubt faced huge loss of life and infrastructure with massive bombings by the US. The country lost about 3,000 lives, including its supreme commander Ayatollah Khamenei, besides the entire political leadership. It may take years for Iran to recover. Yet the country has not emerged as defeated from this war. In comparative terms, the US lost much more when it comes to men and material.
Loss of life and infrastructure aside, Iran has ended up strategically better off today than it was before the beginning of the war. The first aim of the US and Israel was regime change. That did not happen. Despite killing almost everyone who mattered, the regime remains the same. The US and Israel even appealed to the people of Iran to rise against the regime but nobody cared. Rather, the Iranians closed in their ranks against external aggression.
Even the protests which were going on before the war, stopped instantly as the US-Israel aggression brought the Iranians closer to each other and they forgot about domestic issues, if any. The regime remains the same and Mojtaba Khamenei, son of late Ayatollah, whom the US and the Israelis killed, continues to be the supreme leader, succeeding his father.
Iran continues to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz. While for the next two months, there will be free movement of ships, there is an option for Iran that it may consider charging a fee for maintenance of the passage along with Oman, which also shares control over the Strait.
All the sanctions against Iran will be withdrawn. That means Iran can sell its oil to anyone and everyone it wants and likes. Unlike in the past when it was selling oil at heavy discount due to sanctions, it will now obviously sell the oil at a higher price. This will generate huge funds for the country.
Also read: Why Trump's peace memorandum rings hollow
Iran will also get back access to huge funds worth nearly $25 billion, which had been frozen till now because of the sanctions. Besides, Iran has been assured of $300 billion aid and assistance in different ways for reconstruction.
What did Iran give away in the bargain? Nothing much. Right now, the agreement is not clear as to how to prevent and stop Iran from enriching its uranium so that it is not able to make a nuclear bomb. Iran had already agreed to do it just days before the US and Israel launched an attack on it.
Iran will have no restriction on producing non-nuclear weapons like ballistic missiles. So much so, Trump even said it will be unfair to bar Iran from producing such missiles when these are there in the neighbourhood.
The final outcome of the war has been a complete loss of face for the US, particularly its President Trump and a moral and psychological victory for Iran. Iran, in the coming times will strategically emerge much stronger in the region. Having withstood the mighty US, will not only raise the country’s stature across the region, but globally as well. Iran’s regional competitors and rivals like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar will think twice before taking any confrontation with it. Iran has proved that no matter how many bases the US may set up in those countries, their long-term security can be guaranteed only by avoiding confrontation.
The war has come at a heavy cost, not only for Iran, which has been extensively devastated, but also for the Americans. Besides the loss of 13 lives, the cumulative loss suffered by the USA due to the war is estimated to be $132 billion. This includes military spending, rising energy and commodity costs and interest rates. The military expenditure alone has been $29 billion. This estimate excludes the losses suffered by the US bases in the Middle East due to Iranian attacks.
To sum it up, Iran gave the US the proverbial run for its money. The war also proved once again that no matter how mighty and powerful you may be militarily, you just can’t simply bomb your way to victory.
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